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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2017, Vol. 57 Issue (4): 376-381    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.007
  土木工程 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于多方满意的PPP项目股权配置优化研究
冯珂1,2, 王守清1,2, 薛彦广1
1. 清华大学 建设管理系, 北京 100084;
2. 清华大学 恒隆房地产研究中心, 北京 100084
Optimization of PPP project equity structures based on the satisfactions of the main stakeholders
FENG Ke1,2, WANG Shouqing1,2, XUE Yanguang1
1. Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 公私合作制(public-private partnership,PPP)项目的股权配置直接影响着风险和收益在各项目干系人之间的分配,科学合理的股权配置决策模型对于确保项目的成功至关重要。该文首先归纳分析了PPP项目股权配置决策中各项目干系人的决策原则。根据这些原则和PPP项目融资的特点,在债权人、私人部门和公共部门三方主要项目干系人满意的约束条件下,构建了一个寻求项目社会成本最低的股权配置模型。其次,使用遗传算法对模型的最优股权配置进行了求解,并在适应度函数的计算中引入MonteCarlo模拟对项目收益和成本的关键影响因素进行了仿真,加入免疫记忆细胞提高了算法的收敛性。最后,根据某轨道交通PPP项目的案例对模型进行了验证。结果表明:该研究提出的建模与仿真方法可为类似项目中的股权配置决策提供参考。
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冯珂
王守清
薛彦广
关键词 公私合作制(PPP)股权结构遗传算法Monte Carlo模拟    
Abstract:The equity structure of a public-private partnership (PPP) project directly affects the allocation of risk and interest among the project stakeholders. A reasonable equity allocation decision making model is important for a project's success. This paper first analyzes the equity allocation decision making principles of the main stakeholders. These principles and project financing characteristic were then used to define an optimization model to minimize a PPP projects' social costs while satisfying the objectives of the key PPP stakeholders, i.e., the debtors, the private companies and the governments. A genetic algorithm is used to solve the decision making problem with a Monte Carlo model to simulate the changes in the project revenues with an immunological memory cell to improve the algorithm convergence. The model is validated by companies with an actual urban rail transport project. The model can be used to provide reference data for public and/or private entities for equity structure decision making for other PPP projects.
Key wordspublic-private partnership (PPP)    equity structure    genetic algorithm    Monte Carlo simulation
收稿日期: 2015-06-14      出版日期: 2017-04-19
ZTFLH:  F407.9  
通讯作者: 王守清,教授,E-mail:sqwang@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: sqwang@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
冯珂, 王守清, 薛彦广. 基于多方满意的PPP项目股权配置优化研究[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 57(4): 376-381.
FENG Ke, WANG Shouqing, XUE Yanguang. Optimization of PPP project equity structures based on the satisfactions of the main stakeholders. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2017, 57(4): 376-381.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.007  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2017/V57/I4/376
  表1 遗传算法的基本参数设置
  图1 PPP项目股权配置模型的求解流程
  表2 关键参数的概率分布
  表3 项目年净现金流的模拟数值
  图2 遗传算法的求解迭代过程
  图3 遗传算法适应度值的变化过程
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