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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2017, Vol. 57 Issue (4): 437-442    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.018
  工业工程 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于多项logit模型的在线机票代理商选择行为
杨晓芳1,2, 王喆1, 姜海1
1. 清华大学 工业工程系, 北京 100084;
2. 内蒙古大学 交通学院, 呼和浩特 010070
Online air-ticket agent choice based on a multinomial logit model
YANG Xiaofang1,2, WANG Zhe1, JIANG Hai1
1. Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Transportation Institute, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010070, China
全文: PDF(1094 KB)  
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 用户在线机票代理商选择行为的分析对旅游搜索网站机票搜索产品系统的改进非常重要。该文基于某旅游搜索网站机票搜索和预订用户的在线数据,对该网站的用户在线代理商选择行为进行分析。运用了多项logit模型理论及方法,将有关代理商的机票报价、评价、增值服务、页面位置以及市场份额的变量引入模型,并建立了可以解释该选择行为的对数价格多项logit模型。结果显示:用户的确最关注的是代理商的机票报价;搭售保险和评价人数过少都不利于用户对代理商的选择;增值服务的提供和较高的评分会增加用户对代理商的兴趣;用户更倾向于选择展示页面中靠前位置的代理商,其次是靠后的代理商;市场份额大的代理商对用户的选择行为会产生显著影响。预测检验表明该文建立的模型比历史数据预测方法有更高的预测精度。
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杨晓芳
王喆
姜海
关键词 多项logit模型在线机票代理商选择行为    
Abstract:The online air-ticket agent can significantly improve an air-ticket search system for online travel search engines. The paper analyzes the air-ticket agent behavior based on user air-ticket searches and booking data from an online travel search engine. A multinomial logit model is used to analyze the effects of the agents' quote, grades, value-added services, positions on the page and market shares to build a log-price multinomial logit model for user online air-ticket agent choices. The results show that the price quotes are the principal user concern and that including insurance and fewer raters lead to fear selections of the agent which value-added services and higher grades attract user attention. Users are more inclined to choose the agents showed on the front of the page and then the agents listed at the bottom. Agents with large market shares significantly influence the choice. Tests show that the predictions of this model are better than those using historical data.
Key wordsmultinomial logit model    online air-ticket agent    choice behavior
收稿日期: 2015-08-27      出版日期: 2017-04-19
ZTFLH:  C93  
通讯作者: 姜海,副教授,E-mail:haijiang@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: haijiang@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
杨晓芳, 王喆, 姜海. 基于多项logit模型的在线机票代理商选择行为[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 57(4): 437-442.
YANG Xiaofang, WANG Zhe, JIANG Hai. Online air-ticket agent choice based on a multinomial logit model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2017, 57(4): 437-442.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.018  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2017/V57/I4/437
  表1 代理商推荐页面展示的代理商信息及其基本统计结果
  表2 代理商评分变量的取值方式
  表3 在线机票代理商选择的多项logit模型的参数估计
  图1 模型预测精度比较
  表4 模型预测精度比较
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