Please wait a minute...
 首页  期刊介绍 期刊订阅 联系我们 横山亮次奖 百年刊庆
 
最新录用  |  预出版  |  当期目录  |  过刊浏览  |  阅读排行  |  下载排行  |  引用排行  |  横山亮次奖  |  百年刊庆
清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2017, Vol. 57 Issue (4): 437-442    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.018
  工业工程 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于多项logit模型的在线机票代理商选择行为
杨晓芳1,2, 王喆1, 姜海1
1. 清华大学 工业工程系, 北京 100084;
2. 内蒙古大学 交通学院, 呼和浩特 010070
Online air-ticket agent choice based on a multinomial logit model
YANG Xiaofang1,2, WANG Zhe1, JIANG Hai1
1. Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Transportation Institute, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010070, China
全文: PDF(1094 KB)  
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 用户在线机票代理商选择行为的分析对旅游搜索网站机票搜索产品系统的改进非常重要。该文基于某旅游搜索网站机票搜索和预订用户的在线数据,对该网站的用户在线代理商选择行为进行分析。运用了多项logit模型理论及方法,将有关代理商的机票报价、评价、增值服务、页面位置以及市场份额的变量引入模型,并建立了可以解释该选择行为的对数价格多项logit模型。结果显示:用户的确最关注的是代理商的机票报价;搭售保险和评价人数过少都不利于用户对代理商的选择;增值服务的提供和较高的评分会增加用户对代理商的兴趣;用户更倾向于选择展示页面中靠前位置的代理商,其次是靠后的代理商;市场份额大的代理商对用户的选择行为会产生显著影响。预测检验表明该文建立的模型比历史数据预测方法有更高的预测精度。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
杨晓芳
王喆
姜海
关键词 多项logit模型在线机票代理商选择行为    
Abstract:The online air-ticket agent can significantly improve an air-ticket search system for online travel search engines. The paper analyzes the air-ticket agent behavior based on user air-ticket searches and booking data from an online travel search engine. A multinomial logit model is used to analyze the effects of the agents' quote, grades, value-added services, positions on the page and market shares to build a log-price multinomial logit model for user online air-ticket agent choices. The results show that the price quotes are the principal user concern and that including insurance and fewer raters lead to fear selections of the agent which value-added services and higher grades attract user attention. Users are more inclined to choose the agents showed on the front of the page and then the agents listed at the bottom. Agents with large market shares significantly influence the choice. Tests show that the predictions of this model are better than those using historical data.
Key wordsmultinomial logit model    online air-ticket agent    choice behavior
收稿日期: 2015-08-27      出版日期: 2017-04-15
ZTFLH:  C93  
通讯作者: 姜海,副教授,E-mail:haijiang@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: haijiang@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
杨晓芳, 王喆, 姜海. 基于多项logit模型的在线机票代理商选择行为[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 57(4): 437-442.
YANG Xiaofang, WANG Zhe, JIANG Hai. Online air-ticket agent choice based on a multinomial logit model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2017, 57(4): 437-442.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.018  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2017/V57/I4/437
  表1 代理商推荐页面展示的代理商信息及其基本统计结果
  表2 代理商评分变量的取值方式
  表3 在线机票代理商选择的多项logit模型的参数估计
  图1 模型预测精度比较
  表4 模型预测精度比较
[1] Smyth B, Cotter P. A personalized TV listings service for the digital TV age[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2000, 13(2-3): 53-59.
[2] Jansen B J, Spink A, Bateman J, et al. Real life information retrieval: A study of user queries on the web[J]. SIGIR Forum, 1998, 32(1): 5-17.
[3] Coldren G M, Koppelman F S, Kasturirangan K, et al. Air travel itinerary share prediction: Logit model development at a major US airline[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management, 2003, 9(6): 361-369.
[4] Coldren G M, Koppelman F S. Modeling the proximate covariance property of air travel itineraries along the time-of-day dimension[J]. Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2005(1915): 112-123.
[5] Jiang H. A nested logit-based approach to measuring air shopping screen quality and predicting market share[J]. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 2009, 8: 134-147.
[6] Warburg V, Bhat C, Adler T. Modeling demographic and unobserved heterogeneity in air passenger's sensitivity to service attributes in itinerary choice[J]. Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2006(1951): 7-16.
[7] Van Eggermond M, Schüessler N, Axhausen K W. Accounting for Similarities in Air Transport Route Choice[D]. Zürich: ETH, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, IVT, 2008.
[8] Garrow L A, Jones S P, Parker R A. How much airline customers are willing to pay: An analysis of price sensitivity in online distribution channels[J]. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 2007, 5(4): 271-290.
[9] 梅虎. 航空旅客选择行为及其在收益管理中的应用研究[D]. 南京: 南京航空航天大学, 2007.MEI Hu. Research on Air Passenger Choice Behavior and Its Application to Revenue Management[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2007. (in Chinese)
[10] 叶峰. 基于出行链的航空旅客选择行为研究[D]. 上海: 同济大学, 2008.YE Feng. Trip Chain Based Air Passenger Behavior Choice Research[D]. Shanghai: Tongji University, 2008. (in Chinese)
[11] Ben-Akiva M, Lerman S. Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand[M]. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1985.
[12] Train K E. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
[1] 王婷艳, 于明, 杨兰, 宁温馨, 孔德华. 卫生干预分类的编码结构分析与信息建模[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 56(5): 544-552.
[2] 林文斌, 刘滨. 中国碳市场现状与未来发展[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(12): 1315-1323.
[3] 袁尚南, 强茂山, 温祺, 江汉臣. 基于模糊层次分析法的建设项目组织效能评价模型[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(6): 616-623.
[4] 强茂山, 袁尚南, 温祺. 工程项目团队能力的测量与评价[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(6): 624-632.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn