Environmental impact of Beijing's industrial decentralization based on a discrete choice modeling approach
LI Tiankui1, LIU Yi1, WANG Chaoran1, WANG Zishu1,2
1. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Tsinghua Holdings Human Settlements Environment Institute, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract：The ‘Non-Capital Functions’ dispersion policy is significantly affecting the spatial distribution of resources and the environmental in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. This study estimates the changes in resource use and emissions at a regional level. The study classifies industrial sectors through a screening analysis of their policies, economics and environmental effects. The Monte Carlo method is used to determine individual firm sizes. A discrete choice model is used with location information and local environmental efficiencies. Relationships between the industrial size and the resource use and emission intensities are used to estimate the environmental impacts. The results show that during "the thirteenth five-year" plan, the industrial output in Beijing will decreases by 7%, while resource use and pollutant emissions will fall by over 9%, which will effectively alleviate water shortages in Beijing. In other cities in the region, the industrial output will rise by 5% on average, far more than the resource use and emissions increases. Various policy recommendations are presented to improve local environmental regulations.
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LI Tiankui, LIU Yi, WANG Chaoran, WANG Zishu. Environmental impact of Beijing's industrial decentralization based on a discrete choice modeling approach. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2017, 57(11): 1163-1169.
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2017, Vol. 57 
