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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2018, Vol. 58 Issue (9): 858-864    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.22.037
  工程物理 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
面向应急决策的突发事件情景模型
朱伟1, 刘呈2, 刘奕2
1. 北京城市系统工程研究中心 燃气、供热与地下管网运行安全北京市重点实验室, 北京 100089;
2. 清华大学 工程物理系, 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084
Scenario model for emergency decision-making
ZHU Wei1, LIU Cheng2, LIU Yi2
1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Operation Safety of Gas, Heating and Underground Pipelines, Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering, Beijing 100089, China;
2. Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 为了对灾情建立结构化和量化的表达,增强基于情景的灾情认知的有效性,该文从应急决策的需求出发,建立了多维情景模型。该模型由4部分组成:情景对象表达、灾情向量、情景环境和情景对策。其中:情景对象表达和灾情向量是情景的内核,是对灾情自身特性的定性半定量表达;情景环境和情景对策是对环境、应急资源和应急响应对策的结构化描述。给出了模型形式化的数学描述,并通过实例分析对该模型进行了验证。该情景模型能够辅助决策者建立内涵清晰的突发事件情景,实现高度结构化和量化的灾情表达,从而使决策者进行更加科学合理的灾情严重度评估。
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朱伟
刘呈
刘奕
关键词 情景对象表达情景模型应急决策    
Abstract:This paper presents a disaster scenario model that gives a structured, quantitative picture of the disaster status to improve situation awareness during a disaster. A multi-dimensional scenario model is developed for emergency decision-making. The scenario model includes object representations, disaster status vectors, the scenario context and a scenario solution. The object representations and disaster status vectors are the core of the scenario model as qualitive and semi-quantitative representations of the disaster status. The scenario context and scenario solution are structural descriptions of the disaster environment, response resources and emergency response actions. Mathematical definitions and formulations of the scenario model are given with an example to demonstrate the model effectiveness. This model defines the scenario with the disaster status represented by a structured, quantitative model. The model can be used to evaluate the emergency severity for decision-making.
Key wordsscenario object representation    scenario model    emergency decision-making
收稿日期: 2018-01-12      出版日期: 2018-09-19
基金资助:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0803300);国家自然科学基金项目(91646101,71673158,91324022,91646201)
通讯作者: 刘奕,副教授,E-mail:liuyi@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: liuyi@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
朱伟, 刘呈, 刘奕. 面向应急决策的突发事件情景模型[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 58(9): 858-864.
ZHU Wei, LIU Cheng, LIU Yi. Scenario model for emergency decision-making. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2018, 58(9): 858-864.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.22.037  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2018/V58/I9/858
  图1 情景空间的拓展示例
  表1 资源评价等级划分
  图2 情景构建流程
  表2 情景空间Ãπ=ã1×ã2×ã3×ã4 的灾情要素信息
  表3 #308罐火灾事故的情景构建
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