Please wait a minute...
 首页  期刊介绍 期刊订阅 联系我们 横山亮次奖 百年刊庆
 
最新录用  |  预出版  |  当期目录  |  过刊浏览  |  阅读排行  |  下载排行  |  引用排行  |  横山亮次奖  |  百年刊庆
清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2018, Vol. 58 Issue (11): 1006-1012    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.25.045
  物理与工程物理 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于安全系统相似机理模型的事故分析
贾楠, 刘呈, 钱静
清华大学 工程物理系, 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084
Accident analysis based on a similarity mechanism safety system model
JIA Nan, LIU Cheng, QIAN Jing
Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
全文: PDF(1269 KB)  
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 为了降低相似事故的发生率,该文结合相似系统理论,提出基于系统相似机理模型的事故分析方法。首先,给出了相似安全系统分析的定义及内涵,并且从相似学角度抽象了安全系统整体显现内涵表达式,进而构建安全系统相似机理模型;其次,提出基于安全系统相似机理模型的事故分析一般程式;最后,以天津港“8·12”特别重大火灾爆炸事故和与之相似的昆山中荣金属制品有限公司“8·2”特别重大爆炸事故为案例,分析事故致因,并从事故预防、安全管理等角度进行事故反思。结果表明:该方法可有效运用于相似事故的分析研究,研究结果为相似事故的分析和预防提供了全新的思路和启示。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
贾楠
刘呈
钱静
关键词 相似事故分析系统相似机理相似度计算案例分析    
Abstract:An accident analysis method was developed to reduce the incidence of accidents that are similar to previous accidents. The method is based on similarity system theory. This paper describes similarity safety system analyses with mathematical expressions for the similarity mechanism model and two examples. A general program was then developed for accident analyses based on the safety system similarity mechanism model. The model was used to analyzed the fire and explosion accident involving the hazard materials warehouse at Tianjin and the Zhongrong Metal Products Co. Ltd to develop methods for accident prevention and safety management. The results show that this method can be used to effectively analyze similar accidents. The research results provide a new accident analysis and prevention method.
Key wordssimilar accidents analysis    system similarity mechanisms    similarity calculations    safety analyses
收稿日期: 2017-12-22      出版日期: 2018-11-21
基金资助:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0803300);国家自然科学基金资助项目(91646101,71673158,91324022,91646201)
引用本文:   
贾楠, 刘呈, 钱静. 基于安全系统相似机理模型的事故分析[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 58(11): 1006-1012.
JIA Nan, LIU Cheng, QIAN Jing. Accident analysis based on a similarity mechanism safety system model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2018, 58(11): 1006-1012.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.25.045  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2018/V58/I11/1006
  图1 事故系统相似分析内涵
  图2 安全系统相似性机理模型
  图3 基于安全系统相似机理模型的事故分析步骤
  图4 相似元总结
  表1 子系统相似度及系统相似度
[1] LUKIC D, LITTLEJOHN A, MARGARYAN A. A framework for learning from incidents in the workplace[J]. Safety Science, 2012, 50(4):950-957.
[2] LINDBERG A K, HANSSON S O, ROLLENHAGEN C. Learning from accidents-what more do we need to know?[J]. Safety Science, 2010, 48(6):714-721.
[3] CHONG M, ABRAHAM A, PAPRZYCKI M. Traffic accident analysis using machine learning paradigms[J]. Informatica, 2005, 29(1):89-98.
[4] SALMON P M, CORNELISSEN M, TROTTER M J. Systems-based accident analysis methods:A comparison of Accimap, HFACS, and STAMP[J]. Safety Science, 2012, 50(4):1158-1170.
[5] KONTOGIANNIS T, LEOPOULOS V, MARMARAS N. A comparison of accident analysis techniques for safety-critical man-machine systems[J]. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 2000, 25(4):327-347.
[6] COOKE D L, ROHLEDER T R. Learning from incidents:From normal accidents to high reliability[J]. System Dynamics Review, 2006, 22(3):213-239.
[7] CAMBRAIA F B, SAURIN T A, FORMOSO C T. Identification, analysis and dissemination of information on near misses:A case study in the construction industry[J]. Safety Science, 2010, 48(1):91-99.
[8] 吴超, 贾楠. 相似安全系统学的创建研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2016, 36(5):1354-1360. WU C, JIA N. Establishment of similarity safety systematics[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2016, 36(5):1354-1360. (in Chinese)
[9] LIU Y P, CHEN Y M, BAI Y H, et al. Similarity theory for the physical simulation of natural gas hydrate reservoir development[J]. Mining Science and Technology (China), 2010, 20(5):782-788.
[10] ZHOU M L. Some concepts and mathematical consideration of similarity system theory[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 1992, 1(1):84-92.
[11] KLETZ T A. Accident investigation:Keep asking "why?"[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006, 130(1-2):69-75.
[12] LI H, KANG Q, HE J. A new approach to reproduce traffic accident based on the data of vehicle video recorders[C]//PATNAIK S, LI X L. Proceedings of the International Conference on Soft Computing Techniques and Engineering Application. New Delhi, India:Springer, 2014:223-232.
[13] NIKFALAZAR S, KHORSHIDI H A, HAMADANI A Z. Fuzzy risk analysis by similarity-based multi-criteria approach to classify alternatives[J]. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2016, 7(3):250-256.
[14] 贾楠, 吴超, 黄浪, 等. 相似安全系统学研究的方法论[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2016, 26(6):30-35. JIA N, WU C, HUANG L, et al. Methodology of similarity safety systematics research[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2016, 26(6):30-35. (in Chinese)
[15] HOLTSLAG M C, BIERBOOMS W A A M, VAN BUSSEL G J W. Validation of surface layer similarity theory to describe far offshore marine conditions in the Dutch North Sea in scope of wind energy research[J]. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aero Dynamics, 2015, 136:180-191.
[16] JANG J W, KANG H, WOO J, et al. Andro-Dumpsys:Anti-malware system based on the similarity of malware creator and malware centric information[J]. Computers & Security, 2016, 58:125-138.
[17] JIANG Z A, SHI L L, WANG P. Establishing mine water supply network physical model based on the abnormal similar theory[J]. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 2013, 421:850-854.
[18] WANG Y J, LEE H S. Generalizing TOPSIS for fuzzy multiple-criteria group decision-making[J]. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 2007, 53(11):1762-1772.
[19] ZHOU M L. Principles and practice of similarity system theory[J]. International Journal of General Systems, 1994, 23(1):39-48.
[20] BEHZADIAN M, KHANMOHAMMADI OTAGHSARA S, YAZDANI M, et al. A state-of the-art survey of TOPSIS applications[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(17):13051-13069.
[21] LIN M C, WANG C C, CHEN M S, et al. Using AHP and TOPSIS approaches in customer-driven product design process[J]. Computers in Industry, 2008, 59(1):17-31.
[22] YUE Z L. An extended TOPSIS for determining weights of decision makers with interval numbers[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2011, 24(1):146-153.
[23] LI X, ZHU Y M, SHI Y M. Conflict analysis in redevelopment of brownfield caused by contingency:Tianjin port "8·12" explosion Hazard, in China[C]//Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. Bali, Indonesia:IEEE, 2016:1106-1110.
[24] HE D Y. Research of Tianjin port explosion under the lack of power list[C]//Proceedings of the 2016 2nd International Conference on Economy, Management, Law and Education. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research. Moscow, Russian:Atlantis Press, 2017:353-358.
No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn