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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2018, Vol. 58 Issue (6): 539-546    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.26.026
  机械工程 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于PCA和SPC-动态神经网络的风电机组齿轮箱油温趋势预测
黄忠山1,2, 田凌1,2, 向东1,2, 韦尧中1,2
1. 清华大学 机械工程系, 北京 100084;
2. 精密超精密制造装备及控制北京市重点实验室, 北京 100084
Prediction of oil temperature variations in a wind turbine gearbox based on PCA and an SPC-dynamic neural network hybrid
HUANG Zhongshan1,2, TIAN Ling1,2, XIANG Dong1,2, WEI Yaozhong1,2
1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Beijing Key Lab of Precision/Ultra-precision Manufacturing Equipment and Control, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 针对风电机组齿轮箱油温趋势预测中存在的信号非线性、多变量相关、各相关变量之间存在数据冗余等问题,同时为了克服人工神经网络离线训练的不足,该文提出了一种基于主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)和动态神经网络的齿轮箱油温趋势预测模型,并结合统计过程控制(statistical process control,SPC)实现该模型在线学习能力。确定影响油温变化的相关变量集,利用PCA消除相关变量间的数据冗余,采用有外部输入的非线性自回归动态神经网络(nonlinear autoregressive with external input,NARX)对油温和相关变量集进行建模,采用考虑残差分布规律的SPC方法控制模型在线学习行为。实际应用结果表明:该方法具有较高的稳定性和准确度,能够有效实现油温趋势预测。
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黄忠山
田凌
向东
韦尧中
关键词 风电机组齿轮箱油温主成分分析动态神经网络统计过程控制    
Abstract:The oil temperatures in wind turbine gearboxes are difficult to predict due to the strong nonlinearities. Multivariable correlations have been developed, but they are difficult to use due to the data redundancy between the correlation variables and the shortage of off-line training data for the artificial neural networks This paper presents a gearbox oil temperature prediction model based on a principal component analysis (PCA) and a dynamic neural network. The model uses online learning based on statistical process control (SPC). The PCA method deals with the data redundancy problem for the variables affecting the oil temperature. The nonlinear autoregressive with external input (NARX) dynamic neural network is then used to model the oil temperature. The SPC method analyzes the residual distribution to control the online learning behavior. Tests show that the method is stable and can accurately predict the oil temperature variations.
Key wordswind turbines    gearbox oil temperature    principal component analysis    dynamic neural network    statistical process control
收稿日期: 2018-01-15      出版日期: 2018-06-15
通讯作者: 田凌,教授,E-mail:tianling@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: tianling@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
黄忠山, 田凌, 向东, 韦尧中. 基于PCA和SPC-动态神经网络的风电机组齿轮箱油温趋势预测[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 58(6): 539-546.
HUANG Zhongshan, TIAN Ling, XIANG Dong, WEI Yaozhong. Prediction of oil temperature variations in a wind turbine gearbox based on PCA and an SPC-dynamic neural network hybrid. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2018, 58(6): 539-546.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.26.026  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2018/V58/I6/539
  表1 相关性分析结果
  图1 NARX神经网络结构
  图2 基于 PCA和SPCG动态神经网络的模型算法
  表2 KMO 与 Bartlett相关性检验结果
  表3 解释的总方差
  表4 成分得分系数矩阵
  图3 拟合优度系数R 及残差自相关评价指标
  表5 NARX模型和 BP模型的性能指标结果
  图4 残差序列的 Gauss分布特性
  图5 正常工况与大风工况样本
  表6 正常工况下模型误差统计指标
  图6 不同工况下各模型预测值与真实值拟合结果
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