Abstract:A model was developed to describe the evolution of over-flow and dam-break disasters based on critical judgments of the disaster evolution. The model accounts for the effects of various types of causes, self-recovery characteristics, repairs, internal noise and impacts from outside the system. The model was then used in a parametric study of critical disaster parameter values and disaster evolution delay coefficients. The results indicate that the destructive impact of dam-breaks is far greater than that of overflows. In addition, increasing the critical value of the disaster significantly affects the evolution of an over-flow disaster. The disaster losses at a given time, especially the event evolution following a dam break, are reduced by a larger delay coefficient. This models gives insights on disaster evolution that can be used to improve preparedness and disaster response management.
陈长坤, 徐童, 姬露露, 张宇伦, 雷鹏. 基于条件判断模型的溢流和溃坝模式灾害演化对比研究[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 61(6): 518-526.
CHEN Changkun, XU Tong, JI Lulu, ZHANG Yulun, LEI Peng. Comparative research on disasters evolution of over-flow and dam-break mode based on conditional judgment model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2021, 61(6): 518-526.
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