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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2023, Vol. 63 Issue (5): 765-774    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.21.038
  公共安全 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
张琳1, 王金玉1, 王鑫1, 王伟2, 曲立1
1. 北京信息科技大学 经济管理学院, 北京 100192;
2. 应急管理部上海消防研究所 灭火理论研究室, 上海 200032
Intelligent dispatching optimization of emergency supplies to multidisaster areas in major natural disasters
ZHANG Lin1, WANG Jinyu1, WANG Xin1, WANG Wei2, QU Li1
1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Information Science and Technology University, Beijing 100192, China;
2. Fire Fighting Theory Laboratory, Shanghai Fire Science and Technology Research Institute of Ministry of Emergency Management, Shanghai 200032, China
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摘要 重大自然灾害频发对国家安定和人民生命安全带来威胁的同时也会造成严重的经济损失。如何在灾后将受灾点所需应急物资快速、精准运送到位受到了广泛关注。该文针对重大自然灾害事件救援特点,考虑在不确定性条件下,兼顾应急调度成本最低和调度时间最短两目标,构建面向多灾害点的应急物资智能调度模型。研究选取2021年中国河南特大暴雨灾害为典型案例,基于三角模糊数方法对不确定变量进行表示,从而将所构建的模型转变为确定性多目标应急物资智能调度模型,同时引入二维Euclid距离赋权进行模拟运算,对模型求解。进一步,利用LINGO软件计算得到各出救点至各受灾点分阶段应急物资调度方案。研究结果表明,利用该模型得到的模拟结果与现实要求接近,能够满足重大自然灾害下多灾害点应急物资调度需求,可为决策者制定有效救灾策略提供参考。
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关键词 重大自然灾害应急物资智能调度多灾害点决策优化    
Abstract:The frequent occurrence of major natural disasters not only endangers national stability and people's safety but also causes serious economic losses. Since most sudden natural disasters are unpredictable, how to transport emergency supplies to disaster-affected areas quickly and accurately has attracted wide attention. Unlike existing research, this study begins with the rescue characteristics of major natural disasters. In this study, an intelligent dispatching model of emergency supplies for multidisaster areas is constructed considering. Considering that the emergency materials of each rescue area to meet the needs of each disaster area, this study constructs an uncertain multiobjective intelligent dispatching model of emergency supplies in fully. Due to the uncertainty and fuzziness of information in emergency situations, using triangular fuzzy number method can help decision-makers to make effective decisions. Therefore, triangular fuzzy number method is used to express the uncertainty of emergency supplies demand and transportation time in different disaster areas. The rainstorm disaster in Henan Province, China, in 2021 is taken as a typical case in this study. The objective and actual data of emergency supplies dispatched in this disaster are obtained from the official websites of Zhengzhou Temporary Disaster Relief Reserve, Red Cross Society of China Henan Branch, and Henan Charity Network. This study sets emergency supplies as variable x(Ze)ij, unit cost as variable cij, transportation time as a variable tij. According to the triangular fuzzy number of emergency supplies demand and transportation time which set in this study, the uncertain variables are represented by the triangular fuzzy number method. Thus, the model is transformed into a deterministic multiobjective intelligent dispatching model. Two-dimensional Euclidean distance weighting is used to simulate the calculation and solve the model. Then, the linear interactive and general optimizer (LINGO) software is used to calculate the emergency supplies dispatching strategy from each rescue area to each disaster area. Given the actual situation of limited transportation conditions, each rescue area is usually unable to dispatch all emergency supplies at one time. Therefore, the weight of various emergency supplies is determined according to the urgency of the actual situation, and the LINGO software is used again in this study to calculate the phased emergency supplies transportation scheme. Finally, the optimal emergency dispatching strategy is formulated to meet the research objective in this study. Based on the above, a visual comparison is made between the results obtained using the constructed emergency supplies intelligent dispatching model and the demand quantity of emergency supplies in each disaster area. It can be seen that the dispatching quantity of various emergency supplies obtained by the model in this work has little difference from the actual emergency supply demand of each disaster area. As a result, large waste in major natural disasters can be avoided. The research findings show that the model has high reliability, and the simulation results are close to the actual situation. It can meet the emergency supplies demand of multidisaster areas and help decision-makers develop effective disaster relief strategies in major natural disasters.
Key wordsmajor natural disasters    emergency supplies    intelligent dispatching    multidisaster areas    decision optimization
收稿日期: 2022-08-08      出版日期: 2023-04-23
作者简介: 张琳(1986—),女,副教授,
张琳, 王金玉, 王鑫, 王伟, 曲立. 重大自然灾害下多灾害点应急物资智能调度优化[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 63(5): 765-774.
ZHANG Lin, WANG Jinyu, WANG Xin, WANG Wei, QU Li. Intelligent dispatching optimization of emergency supplies to multidisaster areas in major natural disasters. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2023, 63(5): 765-774.
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