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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2022, Vol. 62 Issue (10): 1579-1590    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.22.029
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城市复杂灾害"三层四域"情景分析方法及应用
巴锐, 张宇栋, 刘奕, 张辉
清华大学 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084
Three-layer and four-domainscenario analysis method and its application to urban complex disasters
BA Rui, ZHANG Yudong, LIU Yi, ZHANG Hui
Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 随着城市化进程的不断加快,城市面临的灾害风险日益复杂,自然灾害、事故灾难、社会安全事件、公共卫生事件等各类风险因素耦合叠加。城市复杂灾害的防控应急亟需从综合性多维度、跨领域大数据开展融合分析。该文提出了"规划-策略-操作"三层面、"信息-物理-社会-认知"(cyber-physical-social-cognitive, CPS-C)四域合一的融合分析系统,并构建了基于"三层四域"的城市复杂灾害情景分析方法,建立了"目标-情景-任务-资源-响应-评估-决策"应急管理流程框架。以城市内涝应急管理为例,通过基于典型案例分析的规划层面目标制定和基于灾害成因分析的操作层面问题剖析,对策略层面城市内涝的应急防控过程和关键要素进行了系统分析,并对内涝灾害的全周期应急管理进行了推演。通过开展台风-暴雨-内涝灾害下城市场景的人机虚实交互情景模拟演练,对所提出的方法进行了应用,结果表明所提出的方法可以为城市复杂灾害的应急管理提供理论和方法支撑。
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巴锐
张宇栋
刘奕
张辉
关键词 应急管理情景分析城市安全大数据分析复杂灾害    
Abstract:Rapid urbanization has increased the risks and complexity of multi-hazard urban disasters due to various risk factors such as natural disasters,accidents,public security incidents and public health incidents.Prevention,control and emergency responses to multi-hazard urban disasters need fusion analyses using more comprehensive multi-dimensional and cross-disciplinary big data.This study develops a fusion analysis system for cyber-physical-social-cognitive (CPS-C) domains integrated with three layer "planning-tactics-operations" responses.The fusion analysis then works in conjunction with an emergency management framework with the"objective-scenario-mission-resource-response-assessment-decision"procedure.The management of an urban waterlogging emergency is used as a case study with the planning goal based on a typical case analysis and the operations analysis based on a disaster cause analysis.The tactics analysis analyzes the emergency process and key elements to either prevent or control the urban waterlogging for the scenario of emergency management of waterlogging disasters.This method is applied to a virtual interactive scenario simulation of a typhoon induced waterlogging disaster.This method provides theoretical and technical support for emergency management of urban complex disasters.
Key wordsemergency management    scenario analyses    urban safety    big data analyses    complex disaster
收稿日期: 2021-12-02      出版日期: 2022-09-03
基金资助:张辉,教授,E-mail:zhhui@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
巴锐, 张宇栋, 刘奕, 张辉. 城市复杂灾害"三层四域"情景分析方法及应用[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 62(10): 1579-1590.
BA Rui, ZHANG Yudong, LIU Yi, ZHANG Hui. Three-layer and four-domainscenario analysis method and its application to urban complex disasters. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2022, 62(10): 1579-1590.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.22.029  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2022/V62/I10/1579
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
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