Dynamic assessment of economic losses from flood disasters based on scenario simulations
SU Xin1, SHAO Weiwei1, LIU Jiahong1, JIANG Yunzhong1, SHAO Rui1,2, WANG Kaibo3
1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 3. Sichuan Branch, China Development Bank, Chengdu 610041, China
Abstract：Flood loss assessments are an important part of flood management for disaster prevention and mitigation.Most previous research on flood losses has been based on static assessments without high-resolution GDP spatial distribution data with only single industry-related loss assessment objectives.This study simulated urban flooding for a design storm scenario to obtain high-resolution spatial distribution GDP based on land use data,point of interest (POI) data and a random forest regression model.The Arcpy library in Python was used to superimpose the urban flood areas on spatial topology social economic data to predict the direct economic losses due to the flood.An input-output model was used to quantify the indirect economic losses caused by inter-industry linkages.The Qianshan River Basin between Zhongshan and Zhuhai cities in Guangdong Province,China was used as an example to predict the direct economic losses caused by a 50 year design rainstorm and the corresponding industry-related economic losses.The results show differences in the flood economic losses for different industries.The time with greatest flood volume and inundation depth do not necessarily correspond to the time with greatest economic losses.The indirect economic losses account for about 47% of the flood losses and the indirect economic losses of some industries even exceed the direct economic losses,which should receive more attention.This study improves flood loss assessment methods and provides technical support for disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making and industrial structural changes after flooding.
苏鑫, 邵薇薇, 刘家宏, 蒋云钟, 邵蕊, 王开博. 基于情景模拟的洪涝灾害经济损失动态评估[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 62(10): 1606-1617.
SU Xin, SHAO Weiwei, LIU Jiahong, JIANG Yunzhong, SHAO Rui, WANG Kaibo. Dynamic assessment of economic losses from flood disasters based on scenario simulations. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2022, 62(10): 1606-1617.
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2022, Vol. 62 
