Positioning of China's real estate industry based on the input-output method
ZHANG Hong1,2, BI Zhijun1,2, YU Anmiao1,2
1. Center for Urbanization and Industrial Development, School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract：[Objective] In 2003, the State Council of China identified the real estate industry as a pillar of the national economy. However, with economic development and the distribution of the nation's industrial structure, the status of real estate as a pillar industry has repeatedly been questioned. Researchers have conducted extensive studies on the positioning of the real estate industry in China but are yet to reach a consensus. Different understandings of the industrial categories and the selection of varying discrimination indicators are the primary reasons for these conflicting results. Referencing previous research, this study combines classical industrial economics theory with the input-output method to identify and compare the industrial positioning of the real estate industry for a reasonable judgment on the status and role of the real estate industry in the national economy. Considering the current economic transformation, it is imperative to determine the positioning of the real estate industry for formulating effective macro-control policies and for developing the real estate industry. [Methods] This study employs the input-output method. Recently, although the literature regarding the application of the input-output method to the real estate industry in China is gradually increasing, minimal systematic studies focus on the question of industrial positioning. This study first determines the features and characteristics of various categories under industrial positioning. Subsequently, it combines the findings with the input-output method and establishes the discriminant matrix from three perspectives: industrial correlation, industrial spillover effect, and economic contribution; the required coefficients are determined using merged input-output flow tables from 2007 to 2018. Finally, according to the discrimination matrix and each input-output coefficient, the industrial positioning of the real estate industry is determined and compared with the construction, financial, and leasing and business service industries. [Results] The results demonstrate that from 2007 to 2018, 1) the real estate industry has had a widespread but not a strong industrial relationship; however, its driving ability toward other industries has continuously improved over time, but the overall level is low; 2) contribution of the real estate industry to the economy and employment is at the middle or lower level of all industries; and 3) the real estate industry is closely related to construction, financial, and leasing and business service industries, and the functional positioning of the real estate industry has a higher similarity with the financial industry. [Conclusions] Thus, considering the results, this study asserts that the real estate industry in China is a basic industry in the national economy and does not rise to the level of a pillar industry, a prime mover industry, or a leading industry. This study suggests that when formulating regulatory policies for the real estate industry, the nature of the industry as a basic industry and its extensive industrial link should be fully considered to prevent excessive overlap between the functions of real estate and financial industries, which will promote the long-term and healthy development of the real estate industry.
张红, 毕志军, 于安淼. 基于投入产出法的中国房地产业定位[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 63(2): 153-159.
ZHANG Hong, BI Zhijun, YU Anmiao. Positioning of China's real estate industry based on the input-output method. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2023, 63(2): 153-159.
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2023, Vol. 63 
