Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of core cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration—Taken Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang as examples
XIAO Xingyu1, MEI Shiyu2, LIU Ruiqi2, WANG Kuo3, DENG Qing1, HUANG Lida4, YU Feng5
1. School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China; 2. School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Aeroacoustics of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China; 4. Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 5. School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
Abstract：[Objective] The negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic has hindered the development of urban agglomerations. Because of close geographical, transportation, and economic ties, COVID-19 is more likely to be transmitted repeatedly in urban agglomerations. This paper provides references for coordinating the development and security of urban agglomerations and building “resilient cities” in the context of pandemic. By constructing a system of indicators for the urban development level and using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the urban development level without pandemic, this study can quantitatively assess the impact of pandemic on individual cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.[Methods] The study applied an ARIMA model to investigate the urban development mechanism in urban agglomerations in different stages of pandemic. First, indicators were selected from multiple sources based on the collection and analysis of literature. Their reliabilities were tested with the Cronbach’s coefficients. Second, the indicators were assigned weights using an integrated method with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method. Third, the stages of the COVID-19 pandemic were divided based on the monthly data collected from Weibo and other websites. Fourth, based on historical data and urban development trends before pandemic, the ARIMA model was used to predict the urban development level without the effect of pandemic. Finally, a comparison analysis was conducted between the prediction value and the real value to quantitatively assess the impact of pandemic on individual cities in the urban agglomeration.[Results] (1) In the context of pandemic, the urban development level indicators of three cities reached peak and trough values in the same month. (2) The degree of influence was less than 0 during the outbreak period and gradually decreased to a stable trough value. (3) The degree of influence was greater than 0 in the early stage of the recovery period and gradually decreased to less than 0 in the later stage until it reached the trough point.[Conclusions] This study shows that: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic in the central city of the urban agglomeration affects the formulation and implementation of the overall urban agglomeration development strategy; (2) the development pattern of urban agglomeration converges because of pandemic; and (3) cities are resilient and have a certain disaster-bearing capacity. To strengthen the construction of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, the paper suggests that the government should start from the economy, transportation, people’s livelihood, and disaster resilience to improve the urban development level.
萧星宇, 梅诗雨, 刘瑞琪, 王阔, 邓青, 黄丽达, 于峰. 新冠疫情对京津冀城市群城市发展的影响——以北京、天津、石家庄三大城市为例[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 63(6): 994-1002.
XIAO Xingyu, MEI Shiyu, LIU Ruiqi, WANG Kuo, DENG Qing, HUANG Lida, YU Feng. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of core cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration—Taken Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang as examples. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2023, 63(6): 994-1002.
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2023, Vol. 63 
