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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2023, Vol. 63 Issue (6): 994-1002    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.22.003
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新冠疫情对京津冀城市群城市发展的影响——以北京、天津、石家庄三大城市为例
萧星宇1, 梅诗雨2, 刘瑞琪2, 王阔3, 邓青1, 黄丽达4, 于峰5
1. 北京科技大学 土木与资源工程学院, 北京 100083;
2. 北京科技大学 数理学院, 北京 100083;
3. 北京航空航天大学 航空气动声学工业和信息化部重点实验室, 北京 100191;
4. 清华大学 工程物理系, 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084;
5. 上海交通大学 国际与公共事务学院, 上海 200030
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of core cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration—Taken Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang as examples
XIAO Xingyu1, MEI Shiyu2, LIU Ruiqi2, WANG Kuo3, DENG Qing1, HUANG Lida4, YU Feng5
1. School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;
2. School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Aeroacoustics of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;
4. Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
5. School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
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摘要 为兼顾新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情常态化背景下的城市安全与发展,该文研究了不同新冠疫情阶段对城市群城市发展的影响机制。在文献搜集和分析的基础上,从多维度构建城市发展水平指标体系,并通过Cronbach系数检验指标信度;使用组合赋权法构建新冠疫情影响下的城市发展水平指标体系;进而利用差分整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型预测无新冠疫情影响下的城市发展水平,通过与有疫情影响下的实际数据进行对比,定量评估新冠疫情对京津冀城市群中核心城市发展水平的影响。研究结果表明:在新冠疫情爆发期,城市群内城市发展水平走势呈现趋同化;城市具有韧性属性。该研究对新冠疫情常态化下城市群的应急管理决策具有参考意义。
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萧星宇
梅诗雨
刘瑞琪
王阔
邓青
黄丽达
于峰
关键词 城市群新冠疫情面板数据差分整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型城市发展水平    
Abstract:[Objective] The negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic has hindered the development of urban agglomerations. Because of close geographical, transportation, and economic ties, COVID-19 is more likely to be transmitted repeatedly in urban agglomerations. This paper provides references for coordinating the development and security of urban agglomerations and building “resilient cities” in the context of pandemic. By constructing a system of indicators for the urban development level and using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the urban development level without pandemic, this study can quantitatively assess the impact of pandemic on individual cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.[Methods] The study applied an ARIMA model to investigate the urban development mechanism in urban agglomerations in different stages of pandemic. First, indicators were selected from multiple sources based on the collection and analysis of literature. Their reliabilities were tested with the Cronbach’s coefficients. Second, the indicators were assigned weights using an integrated method with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method. Third, the stages of the COVID-19 pandemic were divided based on the monthly data collected from Weibo and other websites. Fourth, based on historical data and urban development trends before pandemic, the ARIMA model was used to predict the urban development level without the effect of pandemic. Finally, a comparison analysis was conducted between the prediction value and the real value to quantitatively assess the impact of pandemic on individual cities in the urban agglomeration.[Results] (1) In the context of pandemic, the urban development level indicators of three cities reached peak and trough values in the same month. (2) The degree of influence was less than 0 during the outbreak period and gradually decreased to a stable trough value. (3) The degree of influence was greater than 0 in the early stage of the recovery period and gradually decreased to less than 0 in the later stage until it reached the trough point.[Conclusions] This study shows that: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic in the central city of the urban agglomeration affects the formulation and implementation of the overall urban agglomeration development strategy; (2) the development pattern of urban agglomeration converges because of pandemic; and (3) cities are resilient and have a certain disaster-bearing capacity. To strengthen the construction of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, the paper suggests that the government should start from the economy, transportation, people’s livelihood, and disaster resilience to improve the urban development level.
Key wordsrban agglomeration    COVID-19 pandemic    panel data    autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model    urban development level
收稿日期: 2022-10-18      出版日期: 2023-05-12
基金资助:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72004113,72104123,71904121,71904193);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274123,72174099);2021年度高端科技创新智库青年项目(ZGKXGDZK202102);北京科技大学矿业与钢铁行业中外人文交流研究课题资助项目(FRF-IPPE-2202)
通讯作者: 邓青,讲师,E-mail:dengqing0415@126.com;黄丽达,博士后,E-mail:huanglida@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: dengqing0415@126.com;huanglida@tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介: 萧星宇(2001—),女,本科生。
引用本文:   
萧星宇, 梅诗雨, 刘瑞琪, 王阔, 邓青, 黄丽达, 于峰. 新冠疫情对京津冀城市群城市发展的影响——以北京、天津、石家庄三大城市为例[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 63(6): 994-1002.
XIAO Xingyu, MEI Shiyu, LIU Ruiqi, WANG Kuo, DENG Qing, HUANG Lida, YU Feng. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of core cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration—Taken Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang as examples. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2023, 63(6): 994-1002.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.22.003  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2023/V63/I6/994
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
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