Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning
Yi LIU1(),Long LIU1,Wangfeng LI2,Yebin DONG3,Xiuqing ZHANG3
1. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 2. Tsinghua Holdings Human Settlement Environment Institute,Beijing 100083, China 3. Dalian Municipal Design and Research Institute of Environmental Science, Dalian 116023, China
An integrated method combining risk analysis, a CALPUFF dispersion model, and spatial analyses, were used to assess the regional atmospheric risk caused by major risk sources in petrochemical park plans. A typical petrochemical park in the planning stage was selected as the case study. The risks of six major sources, involving chlorine, phosgene, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and acrylonitrile, were simulated in different seasons. The results show that the atmospheric risk is increased in 98.7% of the region 1141.5 km2. In 28.2% of the area, i.e. 326.5 km2, human health may be adversely affected after some accidents. The meteorological conditions in the fall are not conducive to pollution dispersion. The highest risks come from the diphenyl methane diisocyanate producing(MDI) project that contributes more than 90% of the increment in the regional atmospheric risk.
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