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清华大学学报(自然科学版)
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写字楼市场租金与空置率互动关系——以北京和首尔为例
李真, 刘洪玉
清华大学 建设管理系, 恒隆房地产研究中心, 北京 100084
Relationship between rent and vacancy rate of office markets in Beijing and Seoul
LEE Jin, LIU Hongyu
Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 该文研究写字楼市场租金与空置率的互动关系。在文献研究和理论分析的基础上, 以DiPasquale-Wheaton的写字楼市场供需理论为基础, 构造了描述租金和空置互动关系的租金模型和空置率模型, 并利用北京和首尔甲级写字楼市场2000年第1季度—2013年第2季度的数据进行了实证研究。结果表明: 北京与首尔写字楼市场租金与空置呈负相关关系, 符合房地产经济学基本理论; 北京与首尔写字楼市场在与宏观经济指标的关系和市场参与者行为层面存在差异。这些特征对北京写字楼市场具有市场运营、预测及政策方面启示。
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李真
刘洪玉
关键词 写字楼市场租金空置率北京首尔    
Abstract:This studied analyzed the effect of the rent on the vacancy rate of office space in large cities. The DiPasquale-Wheaton theory of supply and demand was used to develop a rent and vacancy rate model to describe the relationship between the rent and the vacancy rate. Quarterly data for prime office space in Beijing and Seoul from Q1, 2000 to Q2, 2013 was used for the empirical study. The results show that the rent and vacancy rate correlate negatively which agrees with previous studies of the Beijing and Seoul office space markets. The results also show that the effect of macroeconomic indicators and the market participant behavior differs between the two cities. These features provide implications for market operations, forecasting and policy making in the Beijing office space market.
Key wordsoffice space market    rent    vacancy rate    Beijing    Seoul
收稿日期: 2014-12-14      出版日期: 2015-06-15
ZTFLH:  F293.35  
通讯作者: 刘洪玉, 教授, E-mail: liuhy@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: liuhy@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
李真, 刘洪玉. 写字楼市场租金与空置率互动关系——以北京和首尔为例[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), .
LEE Jin, LIU Hongyu. Relationship between rent and vacancy rate of office markets in Beijing and Seoul. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(6): 647-652.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I6/647
  表1 北京数据描述性统计情况
  表2 首尔数据描述性统计情况
  表3 北京租金模型估计结果
  表4 首尔租金模型估计结果
  表5 北京租金模型的判别指标
  表6 首尔租金模型的判别指标
  表7 北京空置率模型估计结果
  表8 首尔空置率模型估计结果
  表9 北京空置率模型的判别指标
  表10 首尔空置率模型的判别指标
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