Development and application of a serious nuclear accident scenario library
ZHAO Quanlai1, SU Guofeng1, CHEN Jianguo1, YUAN Hongyong1, ZHANG Xiaole1, CHEN Peng2, NI Shunjiang1
1. Institute for Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Policing Information Technology College, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing 102600, China
Abstract：Approaches for dealing with emergency events can be divided into two categories. One is the traditional “forecast-response” type, while the other is the emerging “scenario-response” type. However, in recent years, the “forecast-response” type has been unable to predict the emergency needs of complex, modern scenarios because of the complexity, unpredictability and seriousness of unconventional events. Thus, the “scenario-response” type has become more widely accepted by scholars and emergency command staff. This study considers rare nuclear accidents that can have severe consequences. A serious nuclear accident scenario library is developed using consequence assessments with simple and complex wind fields. The size of the scenario library is then reduced based on analyses of the wind fields with a library developed for the source term inversion. This efficient method can save valuable time during nuclear accident emergency responses.
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2015, Vol. 55 
