Please wait a minute...
 首页  期刊介绍 期刊订阅 联系我们 横山亮次奖 百年刊庆
 
最新录用  |  预出版  |  当期目录  |  过刊浏览  |  阅读排行  |  下载排行  |  引用排行  |  横山亮次奖  |  百年刊庆
清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2015, Vol. 55 Issue (7): 808-814    
  工程物理 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
重大核事故情景库建立及应用
赵全来1, 苏国锋1, 陈建国1, 袁宏永1, 张小乐1, 陈鹏2, 倪顺江1
1. 清华大学 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084;
2. 中国人民公安大学 警务信息工程学院, 北京 102600
Development and application of a serious nuclear accident scenario library
ZHAO Quanlai1, SU Guofeng1, CHEN Jianguo1, YUAN Hongyong1, ZHANG Xiaole1, CHEN Peng2, NI Shunjiang1
1. Institute for Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Policing Information Technology College, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing 102600, China
全文: PDF(1494 KB)  
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 突发事件的应对方法主要被分为两类, 即传统的“预测-应对”模式和新兴的“情景-应对”模式。近年来随着社会的进步和发展, 非常规突发事件的罕见性、演化过程的复杂性及不可预测性, 造成后果的严重性及不确定性愈发明显, 决策者逐渐发现传统的“预测-应对”模式已经无法满足现代应急需求, 因此“情景-应对”模式被越来越多的学者和应急指挥人员所广泛接受并得到了大量研究。该文以非常规突发事件中较为罕见但影响重大的核事故为研究对象, 采用后果评价的方法分别针对简单风场和复杂风场进行研究并建立重大核事故情景库, 通过风场分析的方式缩小情景库规模, 最后利用情景比对的方法实现重大核事故源项反演。通过情景库进行源项反演的方法具有速度快、效率高的特点, 能够为核事故应急救援工作的开展节省宝贵的时间。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
赵全来
苏国锋
陈建国
袁宏永
张小乐
陈鹏
倪顺江
关键词 重大核事故情景-应对情景库源项反演    
Abstract:Approaches for dealing with emergency events can be divided into two categories. One is the traditional “forecast-response” type, while the other is the emerging “scenario-response” type. However, in recent years, the “forecast-response” type has been unable to predict the emergency needs of complex, modern scenarios because of the complexity, unpredictability and seriousness of unconventional events. Thus, the “scenario-response” type has become more widely accepted by scholars and emergency command staff. This study considers rare nuclear accidents that can have severe consequences. A serious nuclear accident scenario library is developed using consequence assessments with simple and complex wind fields. The size of the scenario library is then reduced based on analyses of the wind fields with a library developed for the source term inversion. This efficient method can save valuable time during nuclear accident emergency responses.
Key wordsserious nuclear accident    scenario-response    scenario library    source term inversion
收稿日期: 2015-03-16      出版日期: 2015-09-18
ZTFLH:  X946  
通讯作者: 袁宏永,研究员,E-mail:hy-yuan@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: hy-yuan@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
赵全来, 苏国锋, 陈建国, 袁宏永, 张小乐, 陈鹏, 倪顺江. 重大核事故情景库建立及应用[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(7): 808-814.
ZHAO Quanlai, SU Guofeng, CHEN Jianguo, YUAN Hongyong, ZHANG Xiaole, CHEN Peng, NI Shunjiang. Development and application of a serious nuclear accident scenario library. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(7): 808-814.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I7/808
  图1 情景库建立流程
  图2 不同风速变化区间的覆盖率
  图3 不同风向变化区间的覆盖率
  表1 实验用源项和风场数据[9]
  表2 实验值与情景库值比对
  图4 实验用真实源项与反演结果对比
  图5 红沿河核电站情景库研究范围
  表3 红沿河地区100m 高度2013年气象数据
  图6 红沿河核电站100m 高空2013年风玫瑰图
  图7 相似风场及相似风场下的核素扩散质量浓度
[1] 李仕明, 张志英, 刘樑, 等. 非常规突发事件情景概念研究 [J]. 电子科技大学学报: 社科版, 2014, 16(1): 1-5.LI Shiming, ZHANG Zhiying, LIU Liang, et al. Research on scenario of unconventional emergencies [J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China: Social Sciences Edition, 2014, 16(1): 1-5. (in Chinese)
[2] 刘樑, 许欢, 李仕明. 非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景及情景-应对理论综述研究 [J]. 电子科技大学学报: 社科版, 2013, 15(6): 20-24.LIU Liang, XU Huan, LI Shiming. Review on the scenario and scenario-response theory for unconventional emergency management [J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Teehnolgy of China: Social Sciences Edition, 2013, 15(6): 20-24. (in Chinese)
[3] Gershuny J. The choice of scenarios [J]. Futures, 1976, 8: 496-508.
[4] Porter M E. Competitive Advantage [M]. New York: Free Press, 1982.
[5] Paul J H. When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration [J]. Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 10(6): 549-564.
[6] 姚仁太. 核事故后果评价研究进展 [J]. 辐射防护通讯, 2009, 29(1): 1-10.YAO Rentai. Review and progress in studies of nuclear accident consequence assessment [J]. Radiation Protection Bulletin, 2009, 29(1): 1-10. (in Chinese)
[7] 徐志新, 奚树人, 曲静原. 核事故源项反演技术及其研究现状 [J]. 科技导报, 2007, 27(5): 16-20.XU Zhixin, XI Shuren, QU Jingyuan. Review on source inversion technology in analyzing nuclear accidents [J]. Science & Technology Review, 2007, 27(5): 16-20. (in Chinese)
[8] Masamichi C, Hiromasa N, Haruyasu N, et al. Preliminary estimation of release amounts of 131I and 137Cs accidentally discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the atmosphere [J]. Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 2011, 48(7): 1129-1134.
[9] Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Data Archive [EB/OL]. [2015-03-03]. http://www.jsirwin.com/.
[10] 辽宁红沿河核电厂五、六号机组环境影响报告书: 选址阶段 [EB/OL]. [2015-03-03]. http://www.docin.com/p-309261138.html. Environment Impact Statement of No.5 and No.6 Nuclear Power Unit in Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Plant: Site Selection Phase [EB/OL]. [2015-03-03]. http://www.docin.com/p-309261138.html. (in Chinese)
[11] 李文妍. 气温和风场对大连地区大气中HCHs浓度的影响 [D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2012.LI Wenyan. The Variation of Air Concentrations of HCHs on the Influence of Temperature and Wind Field in Dalian, China [D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2012. (in Chinese)
[12] 卢延峥. 基于GIS的大连市风电场的可行性分析研究 [D]. 大连: 大连理工大学, 2012.LU Yanzheng. GIS-Based Wind Farm's Feasibility Analysis in Dalian [D]. Dalian: Dalian University of Technology, 2012. (in Chinese)
[1] 刘蕴,方晟,李红,曲静原,姚仁太,范丹. 基于四维变分资料同化的核事故源项反演[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(1): 98-104.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn