Estimating the elasticities of gasoline demand for urban households in China
CAO Jing1,2, HU Wenhao1
1. Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract：To encourage low-carbon lifestyles and reduce vehicle air pollution, the Chinese government needs to implement effective policy tools to regulate gasoline consumption, such as gasoline taxes. This paper uses the Probit and Translog models to estimate gasoline price and income elasticities using urban household consumption data for 1992-2009. The results show that the household characteristics significant impact the gasoline consumption of urban households in China. The micro-data elasticities results are similar to those in western countries. The gasoline demand price elasticity is-0.445 and the sophisticated income elasticity is 1.307. Thus, a fuel tax can effectively regulate driving behavior as well as gasoline consumption. In addition, these results show that a gasoline tax is also progressive in China that reduces gasoline consumption and pollutant emissions without negative effects on household welfare.
曹静, 胡文皓. 中国城镇家庭汽油需求弹性估计[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 58(5): 489-493.
CAO Jing, HU Wenhao. Estimating the elasticities of gasoline demand for urban households in China. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2018, 58(5): 489-493.
[1] DAHL C, STERNER T. Analysing gasoline demand elasticities:A survey[J]. Energy Economics, 1991, 13(3):203-210. [2] ESPEY M. Gasoline demand revisited:An international meta-analysis of elasticities[J]. Energy Economics, 1998, 20(3):273-295. [3] GRAHAM D J, GLAISTER S. The demand for automobile fuel:A survey of elasticities[J]. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2002, 36(1):1-26. [4] GOODWIN P, DARGAY J, HANLY M. Elasticities of road traffic and fuel consumption with respect to price and income:A review[J]. Transport Reviews, 2004, 24(3):275-292. [5] HUGHES J E, KNITTEL C R, SPERLING D. Evidence of a shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand[J]. The Energy Journal, 2008, 29(1):113-134. [6] WEST S E, WILLIAMS Ⅲ R C. Estimates from a consumer demand system:Implications for the incidence of environmental taxes[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2004, 47(3):535-558. [7] LIN C Y C, PRINCE L. Gasoline price volatility and the elasticity of demand for gasoline[J]. Energy Economics, 2013, 38:111-117. [8] LIN C Y C, ZENG J Y. The elasticity of demand for gasoline in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 59:189-197. [9] CAO J. Is fuel taxation progressive or regressive in China?[M]//STERNER T. Fuel Taxes and the Poor. New York & London:RFF Press, 2012. [10] LI R, LEUNG G C K. Gasoline consumption in China:A dynamic panel data analysis[J]. Economics Bulletin, 2012, 32(3):2375-2382. [11] 曹静, 谢阳. 1999年至2007年期间中国人均柴油需求弹性[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, 51(2):241-244. CAO J, XIE Y. Diesel demand per capita elasticities in China, 1999-2007[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 2011, 51(2):241-244. (in Chinese) [12] 尹兴中. 燃油税:国际比较与分析[D]. 北京:清华大学, 2005. YIN X Z. Fuel tax:International comparative analysis[D]. Beijing:Tsinghua University, 2005. (in Chinese) [13] 衷楠. 汽油需求弹性分析[D]. 北京:清华大学, 2009.ZHONG N. Analysis on gasoline demand variables elasticities[D]. Beijing:Tsinghua University, 2009. (in Chinese) [14] HOLT M T, GOODWIN B K. The almost ideal and translog demand systems[M]//SLOTTJE D. Contributions to Economic Analysis, Quantifying Consumer Preferences. Bingley, UK:Emerald Group Publishing, 2009. [15] SLESNICK D T. Empirical approaches to the measurement of welfare[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 1998, 36(4):2108-2165. [16] JORGENSON D W, SLESNICK D T. Aggregate consumer behavior and household equivalence scales[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1987, 5(2):219-232.
2018, Vol. 58 
