1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Operation Safety of Gas, Heating and Underground Pipelines, Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering, Beijing 100089, China; 2. Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract：This paper presents a disaster scenario model that gives a structured, quantitative picture of the disaster status to improve situation awareness during a disaster. A multi-dimensional scenario model is developed for emergency decision-making. The scenario model includes object representations, disaster status vectors, the scenario context and a scenario solution. The object representations and disaster status vectors are the core of the scenario model as qualitive and semi-quantitative representations of the disaster status. The scenario context and scenario solution are structural descriptions of the disaster environment, response resources and emergency response actions. Mathematical definitions and formulations of the scenario model are given with an example to demonstrate the model effectiveness. This model defines the scenario with the disaster status represented by a structured, quantitative model. The model can be used to evaluate the emergency severity for decision-making.
朱伟, 刘呈, 刘奕. 面向应急决策的突发事件情景模型[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 58(9): 858-864.
ZHU Wei, LIU Cheng, LIU Yi. Scenario model for emergency decision-making. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2018, 58(9): 858-864.
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2018, Vol. 58 
