Abstract：Key parameter interval changes are used to quantify start-ups uncertainty and to deduce the discounted cash flow (DCF) and a compound real options model based on fuzzy theory. This research shows that the fuzzy real option method improves the DCF by giving the range of values with a fuzzy uncertainty to make more reasonable valuations. The fuzzy parameter sensitivity analysis shows that the start-ups uncertainty negatively correlates with the probability, the minimum value positively correlates with the left width, and the maximum value positively correlates with the right width. Analyses of the start-ups values for different situations can improve the investment decision accuracy. A case study further verifies the effectiveness of the fuzzy real options method in multi-stage investments for start-ups.
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2019, Vol. 59 
