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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2022, Vol. 62 Issue (1): 52-59    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.22.025
  专题:防灾减灾 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
姜波, 陈涛, 袁宏永, 范维澄
清华大学 工程物理系, 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084
Emergency decision-making method for rainstorm disasters based on spatiotemporal scenario analyses
JIANG Bo, CHEN Tao, YUAN Hongyong, FAN Weicheng
Institute of Public Safety, Department of Physics Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 暴雨灾害具有影响大、次生衍生事件多、应急处置难度大等特点。该文从孕灾环境的角度研究暴雨灾害演化过程,针对暴雨灾害典型的时空分布特点,应用Markov决策过程理论,提出了基于情景时空演化的暴雨灾害应急决策方法。通过分析单一空间下暴雨和承灾体的演化过程,以及采取不同应急响应措施对灾害演化的影响,得到最小灾害损失下的最优决策策略。结果表明:基于Markov决策过程的暴雨灾害时空演化方法,可以有效地辅助应急决策者在暴雨灾害发生发展过程中动态调整应急策略,使灾害造成的损失最小。
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关键词 暴雨Markov决策过程模型时空演化分析灾害    
Abstract:Rainstorm induced flooding greatly impacts the environment which leads to secondary events and complicates emergency responses. This study analyzes evaluation methods for rainstorm disasters in emerging disaster environments. An emergency decision-making method is developed for rainstorm disasters based on a Markov decision making model that considers the temporal and spatial characteristics of the rainstorm effects. The optimal decision-making strategy that gives the minimum disaster loss is identified by analyzing the rainstorm effects and environmental conditions in a single space along with the impact of various emergency responses. The results show that the spatiotemporal analysis of the rainstorm disaster scenarios based on the Markov decision making process can help decision makers adjust emergency response strategies as the conditions develop to minimize the losses through improved emergency decision-making.
Key wordsrainstorms    Markov decision making model    spatiotemporal analysis    disaster
收稿日期: 2021-02-13      出版日期: 2022-01-14
通讯作者: 陈涛,副研究员,     E-mail:
姜波, 陈涛, 袁宏永, 范维澄. 基于情景时空演化的暴雨灾害应急决策方法[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 62(1): 52-59.
JIANG Bo, CHEN Tao, YUAN Hongyong, FAN Weicheng. Emergency decision-making method for rainstorm disasters based on spatiotemporal scenario analyses. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2022, 62(1): 52-59.
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