Please wait a minute...
 首页  期刊介绍 期刊订阅 联系我们 横山亮次奖 百年刊庆
 
最新录用  |  预出版  |  当期目录  |  过刊浏览  |  阅读排行  |  下载排行  |  引用排行  |  横山亮次奖  |  百年刊庆
清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2015, Vol. 55 Issue (7): 803-807,814    
  工程物理 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于建筑结构破坏的地震伤亡评估方法及应用
李媛媛, 陈建国, 张小乐, 袁宏永
清华大学 工程物理系, 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084
Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates
LI Yuanyuan, CHEN Jianguo, ZHANG Xiaole, YUAN Hongyong
Institute for Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
全文: PDF(1740 KB)  
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 震后的人员伤亡评估对启动应急预案和组织开展应急救援工作具有重要指导意义。美国地震评估软件 HAZUS 采用了基于建筑易损性的人员伤亡评估方法, 但该模型主要基于美国加利福尼亚州的建筑结构。为进行以震后应急为目的人员伤亡快速评估, 该文通过假设条件对模型进行简化, 以汶川地震为案例对人员伤亡情况进行了预测, 验证了该方法的有效性和对中国建筑结构的适用性。预测的受伤人员数与实际统计数据接近, 遇难人员较实际人数偏低, 原因是模型严重低估了极震区的遇难人数。预测结果与实际情况基本吻合, 能够反映地震导致人员伤亡的严重程度, 简化的模型更加适用于震后应急响应阶段的人员伤亡快速评估, 具有一定的实用价值。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
李媛媛
陈建国
张小乐
袁宏永
关键词 地震人员伤亡能力谱方法地理信息系统ShakeMapHAZUS    
Abstract:Post-earthquake casualty estimates are of great importance for emergency planning and rescues. The USA earthquake software HAZUS estimates casualties based on building vulnerability, but the model is mainly developed for building structures in California. A simplified rapid casualty assessment model is developed for emergency response and verified against data from the Wenchuan earthquake for Chinese building structures. The estimated number of injuries is close to the actual number, but the estimated number of deaths is lower, because the model seriously underestimates fatalities in the epicenter area. The predicted results are consistent with the actual situation and reflect the severity of the earthquake casualties. The simplified model is suitable for rapid casualty assessments to direct post-earthquake emergency response.
Key wordsearthquake casualty    capacity spectrum method    geographic information system (GIS)    ShakeMap    HAZUS
收稿日期: 2013-05-22      出版日期: 2015-07-15
ZTFLH:  X915.5  
通讯作者: 袁宏永,研究员,E-mail:hy-yuan@tsinghua.edu.cn     E-mail: hy-yuan@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
李媛媛, 陈建国, 张小乐, 袁宏永. 基于建筑结构破坏的地震伤亡评估方法及应用[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(7): 803-807,814.
LI Yuanyuan, CHEN Jianguo, ZHANG Xiaole, YUAN Hongyong. Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(7): 803-807,814.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I7/803
  图1 中层无筋砌体填充墙的混凝土框架 建筑(C3M)脆弱性曲线
  表1 HAZUS伤情分级[16]
  图2 峰值地面加速度等值线[17]
  图3 汉旺镇建筑受损估算结果
  图4 观鱼镇建筑受损估算结果
  表2 模型估算整体结果与实际统计数据比较  人
  表3 绵竹市模型估算结果与实际统计值的比较  人
  图5 人口死亡比例与建筑完全破坏比例的关系
[1] Oike K. A discussion on the relation between magnitude and number of deaths by earthquakes [C]//Proc of the Int Seminar on Earthquake and Hazard Mitigation Technology. Tsukuba, Japan: Science and Technology Agency, 1991: 333-341.
[2] Nichols J M, Beavers J E. Development and calibration of an earthquake fatality function [J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2003, 19(3): 605-633.
[3] Samardjieva E, Oike K. Modelling the number of casualties from earthquake [J]. Journal of Natural Disaster Science, 1992, 14(1): 17-28.
[4] Samardjieva E, Badal J. Estimation of the expected number of casualties caused by strong earthquakes [J]. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 2002, 92(6): 2310-2322.
[5] Wald D J, Earle P S, Allen T I, et al. Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response) [C]//Proc of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Beijing, China, 2008.
[6] 肖光先. 震后灾害损失快速评估[J]. 灾害学, 1991, 6(4): 12-17.XIAO Guangxian. Rapid assessment of disaster losses in post-earthquake [J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 1991, 6(4): 12-17. (in Chinese)
[7] Molina S, Lang D H, Lindholm C D. SELENA: An open-source tool for seismic risk and loss assessment using a logic tree computation procedure [J]. Comput Geosci, 2010, 36(3): 257-269.
[8] 陈颙, 刘杰, 陈棋福, 等. 地震危险性分析和震害预测[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1999.CHEN Yu, LIU Jie, CHEN Qifu, et al. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Seismic Damage Prediction [M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1999. (in Chinese)
[9] Coburn A W, Pomonis A, Sakai S. Assessing strategies to reduce fatalities in earthquakes [C]//Proc of International Workshop on Earthquake Injury Epidemiology for Mitigation and Response. Baltimore, MD, USA: Johns Hopkins University, 1989: 107-132.
[10] Shiono K, Krimgold F, Ohta Y. A method for the estimation of earthquake fatalities and its applicability to the global macro-zonation of human casualty risk [C]//Proc of the Fourth International Conference on Seismic. Zonation, CA, USA: 1991, 3: 277-284.
[11] Murakami H O. A simulation model to estimate human loss for occupants of collapsed buildings in an earthquake [C]//Proc of the Tenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Madrid, Spain: 1992: 5969-5974.
[12] Kircher C A, Nassar A A, Kustu O, et al. Development of building damage functions for earthquake loss estimation [J]. Earthquake Spectra, 1997, 13(4): 663-682.
[13] Buriks C, Bohn W, Kennett M, et al. Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment, FEMA 433 [R]. Washington, DC, USA: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2004.
[14] Worden C B, Wald D J, Allen T I, et al. A revised ground motion and intensity interpolation scheme for ShakeMap [J]. B Seismol Soc Am, 2010, 100(6): 3083-3096.
[15] Federal Emergency Management Agency. Improvement of Nonlinear Static Seismic Analysis Procedures, FEMA 440 [R]. Washington, DC, USA: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2005.
[16] Federal Emergency Management Agency. HAZUS99 Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology, Technical Manual [R]. Washington, DC, USA: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1999.
[17] US Geological Survey. USGS Peak Ground Acceleration Map: Eastern Sichuan, China [EB/OL]. [2015-03-08]. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/global/shake/2008ryan/.
[18] 清华大学, 西南交通大学, 北京交通大学土木工程结构专家组. 汶川地震建筑震害分析[J]. 建筑结构学报, 2008, 29(4): 1-9.Civil and Structural Groups of Tsinghua University, Southwest Jiaotong University and Beijing Jiaotong University. Analysis on seismic damage of buildings in the Wenchuan earthquake [J]. Journal of Building Structures, 2008, 29(4): 1-9. (in Chinese)
[19] 傅征祥, 李革平. 地震生命损失研究[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1993.FU Zhengxiang, LI Geping. Studies on Life Losses from Earthquakes [M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1993. (in Chinese)
[1] 吕伟, 李承旭, 马亚萍. 基于GIS位置分配的城市应急避难场所责任区划分[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 62(6): 1102-1109.
[2] 杨萍, 彭羽, 刘雪华, 孟鸿雁, 王斌. 基于生态评估的新疆玛纳斯县域发展适宜性分析[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 56(8): 865-870.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn