China's carbon emissions peak path-based on China TIMES model
MA Ding1,2,3, CHEN Wenying1,2
1. Research Center for Contemporary Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
3. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China
Abstract:In this study, an integrated carbon emission peak path model system was built based on China TIMES model, and was used to analyze China's carbon emissions peak and peak path. The results show that China's carbon emissions will maintain rapid growth in the reference scenario between 2010-2050, and give enormous pressure on China's energy security and addressing climate change; in emission peak scenarios, through the development of non-fossil energy and the adoption of energy-conservation and emission-reduction measures, carbon-intensive sectors (power and industry sectors) can achieve early emissions peak and guarantee the overall carbon emissions peak between 10.0-10.8 billion t; power sector and energy-intensive sectors are the main carbon mitigation sectors, the contribution of carbon mitigation are 75% and 15%, respectively. In addition, adopting non-fossil energy and the energy-efficient technologies are main carbon mitigation measures, and the contribution of carbon mitigation are 65% and 15%, respectively.
马丁, 陈文颖. 基于中国TIMES模型的碳排放达峰路径[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 57(10): 1070-1075.
MA Ding, CHEN Wenying. China's carbon emissions peak path-based on China TIMES model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2017, 57(10): 1070-1075.
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