Abstract:An analytical method was developed to correct linear model results for the inter-satellite collision probability. The traditional linear collision probability model is simple, but has many limitations, and is not applicable to calculations of inter-satellite collision probabilities with small orbital differences. An analytical expression is given to relate the differences between the linear model and Monte Carlo simulation results according to the maximum and minimum relative distances between the satellites. This analytical expression can be used to improve the linear model results to be closer to the true collision probability. Simulations show that the method extends the application range of the linear model and further improves the accuracy.
姜薇, 蒋方华, 李俊峰. 近距离航天器间碰撞概率线性模型的解析修正[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 59(9): 705-711.
JIANG Wei, JIANG Fanghua, LI Junfeng. Analytical correction for a linear model of inter-satellite collision probabilities. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2019, 59(9): 705-711.
[1] 李明, 龚自正, 刘国青. 空间碎片监测移除前沿技术与系统发展[J]. 科学通报, 2018, 63(25):2570-2591. LI M, GONG Z Z, LIU G Q. Frontier technology and system development of space debris surveillance and active removal[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2018, 63(25):2570-2591. (in Chinese) [2] ZHANG Y L, DANG Z H, FAN L, et al. A rapid method for calculating maximal and minimal inter-satellite distances[J]. Advances in Space Research, 2017, 59(1):401-412. [3] DANG Z H, FAN L, WANG Z K, et al. On the maximal and minimal distances of flying-around satellite formation[J]. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, 2017, 89(6):845-852. [4] JIANG W, JIANG F H, LI J F, et al. A simple method to design non-collision relative orbits for close spacecraft formation flying[J]. Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, 2018, 61(5):054511. [5] 杨维维, 赵勇, 陈小前, 等. 航天器碰撞概率计算方法研究进展[J]. 中国空间科学技术, 2012, 32(6):8-15. YANG W W, ZHAO Y, CHEN X Q, et al. Progress in calculation methods for collision probability of spacecraft[J]. Chinese Space Science and Technology, 2012, 32(6):8-15. (in Chinese) [6] 白显宗. 空间目标轨道预报误差与碰撞概率问题研究[D]. 长沙:国防科学技术大学, 2013. BAI X Z. Research on orbital prediction error and collision probability of space objects[D]. Changsha:National University of Defense Technology, 2013. (in Chinese) [7] PATERA R P. Satellite collision probability for nonlinear relative motion[J]. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 2003, 26(5):728-733. [8] PATERA R P. General method for calculating satellite collision probability[J]. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 2001, 24(4):716-722. [9] PATERA R P. Calculating collision probability for arbitrary space vehicle shapes via numerical quadrature[J]. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 2005, 28(6):1326-1328. [10] ALFANO S. Accommodating rectangular objects in probability calculations[C]//AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference and Exhibit. Rhode Island, USA:AIAA, 2004. [11] CHAN K. Short-term vs. long-term spacecraft encounters[C]//AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference and Exhibit. Rhode Island, USA:AIAA, 2004. [12] BAI X Z, MA C W, CHEN L, et al. Maximum collision probability considering variable size, shape, and orientation of covariance ellipse[J]. Advances in Space Research, 2016, 58(6):950-966. [13] MORSELLI A, ARMELLIN R, LIZIA P D, et al. Computation of collision probabilities based on special perturbations and high order methods[C]//Proceedings of the 6th European Conference on Space Debris. Darmstadt, Germany:ESA, 2013. [14] WEN C X, GURFIL P. Relative reachable domain for spacecraft with initial state uncertainties[J]. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 2016, 39(3):462-473. [15] 石昊, 赵育善, 师鹏, 等. 初值不确定轨道可达区域计算[J]. 宇航学报, 2016, 37(4):411-419. SHI H, ZHAO Y S, SHI P, et al. Determination of orbit reachable domain due to initial uncertainties[J]. Journal of Astronautics, 2016, 37(4):411-419. (in Chinese) [16] 石昊, 赵育善, 师鹏. 航天器近距离相对运动的轨迹偏差分析[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2017, 43(3):636-644.SHI H, ZHAO Y S, SHI P. Analysis of trajectory deviation for spacecraft relative motion in close-range[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2017, 43(3):636-644. (in Chinese) [17] WANG Y, BAI Y Z, XING J J, et al. Equal-collision-probability-curve method for safe spacecraft close-range proximity maneuvers[J]. Advances in Space Research, 2018, 62(9):2599-2619. [18] WANG Y, CHEN X Q, RAN D C, et al. Multi-equal-collision-probability-cure method for convex polygon-shape spacecraft safe proximity manoeuvres[J]. The Journal of Navigation, 2019, 72(2):405-429. [19] 白显宗, 陈磊. 基于空间压缩和无穷级数的空间碎片碰撞概率快速算法[J]. 应用数学学报, 2009, 32(2):336-353.BAI X Z, CHEN L. A rapid algorithm of space debris collision probability based on space compression and infinite series[J]. Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, 2009, 32(2):336-353. (in Chinese) [20] 白显宗, 陈磊. 空间目标碰撞概率计算方法研究[J]. 宇航学报, 2008, 29(4):1435-1442, 1456.BAI X Z, CHEN L. Research on calculational method of collision probability between space objects[J]. Journal of Astronautics, 2008, 29(4):1435-1442, 1456. (in Chinese) [21] C HAN K. Spacecraft collision probability for long-term encounters[C]//AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference. Montana, USA:AIAA, 2003. [22] B USSY-VIRAT C D, RIDLEY A J, GETCHIUS J W. Effects of uncertainties in the atmospheric density on the probability of collision between space objects[J]. Space Weather, 2018, 16(5):519-537.