Reliability analysis of the roller base of a counter-roller spinning machine based on the maximum entropy method
ZHENG Hongwei1,2, MENG Guangwei1, LI Feng1, HUANG Tao2, GUO Yaming2, XUAN Mohan2
1. College of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun 130025, China; 2. Changchun Equipment Technology Research Institute, Changchun 130012, China
摘要基于最大熵方法，该文提出一种对轮旋压设备旋轮座结构可靠性分析模型。采用最大熵方法得到功能函数的概率密度函数表达式，利用Taylor展开方法与调用有限元程序相结合得到功能函数前四阶中心矩，然后将功能函数标准化变换得到四阶原点矩，基于四阶原点矩，采用MATLAB函数求解最大熵方法约束条件表达式，得到最大熵概率密度函数所需的参数，然后拟合概率密度曲线，最后采用积分求解功能函数的失效概率，计算结果与MCS （Monte Carlo simulation）方法对比，相对误差为1.61%，验证了该方法的正确性和可行性。此外，还改进设计了旋轮座基体结构，结果表明：改进后的失效概率比改进前降低了11.42%，提高了结构的可靠性。
Abstract：The maximum entropy method was used to develop a reliability analysis model for the roller base of a counter-roller spinning machine. The maximum entropy method was used to define the probability density expression for the performance function with the fourth-order central moments then computed using a Taylor series expansion and a finite element analysis. The fourth-order origin moments were then calculated by a standardized transformation. MATLAB was then used to solve the constrained expression for the moments to obtain the maximum entropy probability density function parameters. The parameters were fit to get the probability density curve with the failure probability of the structural function then found by integration. The error relative to a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was 1.61%, which shows that this method is accurate. The roller base was then optimized which reduced the failure probability after optimization by 11.42%.
郑宏伟, 孟广伟, 李锋, 黄涛, 郭亚明, 宣默涵. 基于最大熵方法分析轮旋压设备旋轮座可靠性[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 61(11): 1289-1294.
ZHENG Hongwei, MENG Guangwei, LI Feng, HUANG Tao, GUO Yaming, XUAN Mohan. Reliability analysis of the roller base of a counter-roller spinning machine based on the maximum entropy method. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2021, 61(11): 1289-1294.
[1] 王大力, 郭亚明, 李亦楠, 等. 大型薄壁筒形件对轮旋压成形数值模拟及成形精度分析[J]. 锻压技术, 2020, 45(3):47-54. WANG D L, GUO Y M, LI Y N, et al. Numerical simulation and forming precision analysis on counter-roller spinning for large thin-walled cylindrical parts[J]. Forging & Stamping Technology, 2020, 45(3):47-54. (in Chinese) [2] LUO W, LU B, ZHENG H W, et al. A research of spinning machine:Effect of different structures of feed system on the static and dynamic characteristics[J]. Advance in Mechanical Engineering, 2019, 11(2):1-15. [3] 张健, 庞俊忠, 张洪瑞, 等. 同步旋转模环旋压成形的数值模拟分析[J], 铸造技术, 2016, 37(2):351-354. ZHANG J, PANG J C, ZHANG H R, et al. Numerical Simulation analysis of synchronous rotary mould ring spinning[J], Foundry Technology, 2016, 37(2):351-354. (in Chinese) [4] WANG L, LONG H. A study of effects of roller path profiles on tool forces and part wall thickness variation in conventional metal spinning[J]. Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 2011, 211(12):2140-2151 [5] HARTEL S, LAUE R. An optimization approach in non-circular spinning[J]. Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 2016, 229:417-430 [6] XU W C, ZHAO X K, MA H, et al. Influence of roller distribution modes on spinning force during tube spinning[J]. International Journal of Mechanical Sciences, 2016, 113:10-25. [7] WANG Z, MA S. Analysis of thin-walled shells with inner ribs formed by inner spinning technology[J]. Materials Research Innovations, 2015, 19(5):101-105. [8] XIAO G F, XIA Q X, CHENG X Q, et al. Metal flow model of cylindrical parts by counter-roller spinning[C]//11th International Conference on Technology of Plasticity. Nagoya, Japan:Procedia Engineering, 2014:2397-2402. [9] 胡玄通, 夏琴香, 程秀全. HGPX-WSM卧式双旋轮数控旋压机结构设计[J]. 锻压技术, 2014, 39(8):59-64.HU X T, XIA Q X, CHEN X Q. Structural design of HGPX-WSM horizontal type CNC spinning machine with double rollers[J]. Forging & Stamping Technology, 2014, 39(8):59-64. (in Chinese) [10] 黄涌, 夏琴香, 程秀全, 等. 筒形件强力旋压用对轮旋压装置的研制[J]. 锻压技术, 2013, 38(6):62-72.HUANG Y, XIA Q X, CHENG X Q, et al. Developing of counter roller spinning equipment for tube power spinning[J]. Forging & Stamping Technology, 2013, 38(6):62-72. (in Chinese) [11] 邹小堤, 黄照, 桂林, 等. 大型数控强力旋压机关键零件制造工艺研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报, 2012, 36(4):821-824. ZOU X D, HUANG Z, GUI L, et al. Manufacturing process research on the key parts of large NC power spinning machine[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 2012, 36(4):821-824. (in Chinese) [12] 贡金鑫. 工程结构可靠度计算方法[M]. 大连:大连理工大学出版社, 2003.GONG J X. Engineering structure reliability calculation method[M]. Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press, 2003. (in Chinese) [13] 张明. 结构可靠度分析[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2009. ZHANG M. Structural reliability analysis[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2009. (in Chinese) [14] ZHENG H W, MENG G W, LI F, et al. Hybrid structure reliability analysis based on the damped Newton method[J]. Tsinghua Science and Technology, 2020, 25(5):668-677
2021, Vol. 61 
