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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2022, Vol. 62 Issue (10): 1571-1578    DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.21.008
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基于情景构建与推演的新能源电力设备运行风险评估
任建强1,2, 王璐阳1,2, 吴家浩1,2, 倪顺江1,2, 翁文国1,2
1. 清华大学 工程物理系, 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084;
2. 城市综合应急科学北京市重点实验室, 北京 100084
Operating risk assessments of new energy power equipment based on scenario construction and deduction
REN Jianqiang1,2, WANG Luyang1,2, WU Jiahao1,2, NI Shunjiang1,2, WENG Wenguo1,2
1. Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 新能源电力设备运行环境多变、系统结构复杂,导致新能源电力系统安全问题日益突出。该文提出了一种基于情景构建与推演的电力设备运行风险评估方法。首先,分析了新能源电力系统运行过程中存在的安全风险问题;其次,构建了新能源电力设备运行风险评估模型;最后综合采用交叉影响分析法和解释结构模型法推演了新能源电力设备的不安全状态对电力系统故障的影响程度,并提出了相应的预防和改进措施。研究结果表明:该方法评估电力设备故障对电力系统运行造成的风险程度合理可行,对电力系统应急管理决策具有重要的指导意义。
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任建强
王璐阳
吴家浩
倪顺江
翁文国
关键词 电力设备情景构建情景推演交叉影响分析解释结构模型    
Abstract:New energy power equipment operating environments are very complex and can change over time which can lead to system failures.This paper presents a risk assessment method for power equipment operations based on scenario constructions and deductions.The operating risks are assessed to develop risk assessment models for the power systems.Then,the influence of these unsafe power system operating conditions on the entire system are deduced using the cross impact analysis method and the interpretive structure model method to identify prevention and control measures.The results show that this method can effectively evaluate the risks caused by power equipment faults in power system operations to guide power system emergency management decisionmaking.
Key wordspower equipment    scenario construction    scenario deduction    cross influence analysis    interpretive structural model
收稿日期: 2021-11-08      出版日期: 2022-09-03
基金资助:倪顺江,高级工程师,E-mail:sjni@tsinghua.edu.cn
引用本文:   
任建强, 王璐阳, 吴家浩, 倪顺江, 翁文国. 基于情景构建与推演的新能源电力设备运行风险评估[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 62(10): 1571-1578.
REN Jianqiang, WANG Luyang, WU Jiahao, NI Shunjiang, WENG Wenguo. Operating risk assessments of new energy power equipment based on scenario construction and deduction. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2022, 62(10): 1571-1578.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.21.008  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2022/V62/I10/1571
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
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