Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.25.017

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Abstract Previous hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas have ignored the intermittent nature of hurrucanes. This paper presents an hurricane damage assessment method that accounts for the intermittency. A Poisson model is used in this paper to describe the hurricane stochastic process with explicit formulas for the hurricane damage assessment. Hurricane data for Miami-Dade County, USA, from 1900 to 2010 were used to illustrate the method. The Poisson model provides a reasonable description of the hurricane stochastic characteristics. The mean and the variance of the hurricane damage are overestimated while the coefficient of variance is underestimated if the intermittency is ignored. For example, for a 50-year service period, the mean cumulative hurricane damage is overestimated by 41.4% while the variance is over estimated by 20.05% if the intermittency is ignored.

Keywords hurricanes damage assessment Poisson process intermittency probabilistic model

ZTFLH:

TU998.4

Issue Date: 15 August 2016

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	LI Quanwang
	WANG Cao
	ZOU Aming
	PANG Long
	ZHANG Long

Cite this article:

LI Quanwang,WANG Cao,ZOU Aming, et al. Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2016, 56(8): 801-805.

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http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.25.017 OR http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/Y2016/V56/I8/801

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