China's carbon emissions peak path-based on China TIMES model

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.047

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Abstract In this study, an integrated carbon emission peak path model system was built based on China TIMES model, and was used to analyze China's carbon emissions peak and peak path. The results show that China's carbon emissions will maintain rapid growth in the reference scenario between 2010-2050, and give enormous pressure on China's energy security and addressing climate change; in emission peak scenarios, through the development of non-fossil energy and the adoption of energy-conservation and emission-reduction measures, carbon-intensive sectors (power and industry sectors) can achieve early emissions peak and guarantee the overall carbon emissions peak between 10.0-10.8 billion t; power sector and energy-intensive sectors are the main carbon mitigation sectors, the contribution of carbon mitigation are 75% and 15%, respectively. In addition, adopting non-fossil energy and the energy-efficient technologies are main carbon mitigation measures, and the contribution of carbon mitigation are 65% and 15%, respectively.

Keywords climate change energy system model carbon emission peak emission reduction potential decomposition

ZTFLH:

F407.2

Issue Date: 15 October 2017

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	MA Ding
	CHEN Wenying

Cite this article:

MA Ding,CHEN Wenying. China's carbon emissions peak path-based on China TIMES model[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2017, 57(10): 1070-1075.

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http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.25.047 OR http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/Y2017/V57/I10/1070

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