| PHYSICS AND ENGINEERING PHYSICS |
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Terrorist attack vulnerability analysis of a natural gas network based on the Attacker-Defender game model |
| HUANG Lida, CHEN Jianguo, YUAN Hongyong, WANG Yan |
| Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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Abstract In recent years, terrorist attacks have become even more violent all over the world and terrorist forces have begun to spread to urban cities. Natural gas pipeline networks carrying hazardous materials in cities are easy targets for attacks. This study analyzes the vulnerability of a natural gas network to terrorist attacks. The adversary relationship between the attackers and defenders is modeled for a specfic natural gas transmission system using an attack-defense game based on game theory and the maximum-flow model of networks. The Nash equilibrium of the game strategy is used to analyze the optimal strategy choices of both parties. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare the differences between random attacks and the optimal attack. The results show that the optimal attack targets differ for different numbers of pipelines, so it is impossible to rank the terrorist threat to pipelines. Additionally, most random attacks have little impact on the system. The conclusions in this paper can provide guidelines reference for government departments to mitigate the effects of terrorist attacks.
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| Keywords
vulnerability
terrorist attacks
attacker-defender
natural gas network
optimization
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Issue Date: 15 June 2017
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2017,
Vol. 57
