Environmental impact of Beijing's industrial decentralization based on a discrete choice modeling approach

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.26.061

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Abstract The ‘Non-Capital Functions’ dispersion policy is significantly affecting the spatial distribution of resources and the environmental in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. This study estimates the changes in resource use and emissions at a regional level. The study classifies industrial sectors through a screening analysis of their policies, economics and environmental effects. The Monte Carlo method is used to determine individual firm sizes. A discrete choice model is used with location information and local environmental efficiencies. Relationships between the industrial size and the resource use and emission intensities are used to estimate the environmental impacts. The results show that during "the thirteenth five-year" plan, the industrial output in Beijing will decreases by 7%, while resource use and pollutant emissions will fall by over 9%, which will effectively alleviate water shortages in Beijing. In other cities in the region, the industrial output will rise by 5% on average, far more than the resource use and emissions increases. Various policy recommendations are presented to improve local environmental regulations.

Keywords capital industrial decentralization industrial reallocation discrete choice model environmental impact

ZTFLH:

X820.3

Issue Date: 15 November 2017

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	LI Tiankui
	LIU Yi
	WANG Chaoran
	WANG Zishu

Cite this article:

LI Tiankui,LIU Yi,WANG Chaoran, et al. Environmental impact of Beijing's industrial decentralization based on a discrete choice modeling approach[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2017, 57(11): 1163-1169.

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http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2017.26.061 OR http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/Y2017/V57/I11/1163

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