Comparative research on disasters evolution of over-flow and dam-break mode based on conditional judgment model

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.21.014

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Abstract A model was developed to describe the evolution of over-flow and dam-break disasters based on critical judgments of the disaster evolution. The model accounts for the effects of various types of causes, self-recovery characteristics, repairs, internal noise and impacts from outside the system. The model was then used in a parametric study of critical disaster parameter values and disaster evolution delay coefficients. The results indicate that the destructive impact of dam-breaks is far greater than that of overflows. In addition, increasing the critical value of the disaster significantly affects the evolution of an over-flow disaster. The disaster losses at a given time, especially the event evolution following a dam break, are reduced by a larger delay coefficient. This models gives insights on disaster evolution that can be used to improve preparedness and disaster response management.

Keywords disaster evolution network conditional judgment over-flow and dam-break disasters critical value of a disaster delay coefficient

Issue Date: 28 April 2021

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	CHEN Changkun
	XU Tong
	JI Lulu
	ZHANG Yulun
	LEI Peng

Cite this article:

CHEN Changkun,XU Tong,JI Lulu, et al. Comparative research on disasters evolution of over-flow and dam-break mode based on conditional judgment model[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2021, 61(6): 518-526.

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http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.21.014 OR http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/Y2021/V61/I6/518

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