| DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION |
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Construction and deduction of rainstorm disaster scenarios based on Bayesian networks |
| JIANG Bo1, ZHANG Chao2, CHEN Tao1, YUAN Hongyong1, FAN Weicheng1 |
1. Institute of Public Safety, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Institute of Public Safety Standardization, China National Institute of Standardization, Beijing 100191, China |
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Abstract Rainstorm disasters are characterized by high intensity and long duration that lead to secondary events and difficult emergency response. This study analyzed rainstorm risks from a global perspective. An emergency scenario was constructed that considered the complexity of the secondary events to analyze the entire development of a rainstorm scenario. A Bayesian network (BN) was used with various risk factor probabilities to analyze the flood risks caused by various rainstorms. The key nodes in the network were then identified by a sensitivity analysis of the risk factors. The results show that the rainstorm risk analysis based on this BN model can help decision makers evaluate storm conditions, develop response plans, identify key risk factors, and improve the timeliness and effectiveness of emergency responses.
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| Keywords
rainstorm
Bayesian network
scenario construction
risk factor
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Issue Date: 28 April 2021
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2021,
Vol. 61
