PROJECT AND TRANSACTION MANAGEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
Analysis of households' willingness to pay for residential building seismic resilience |
WANG Qiuyi, WU Jing, PAN Peng |
Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
|
|
Abstract The seismic resilience of buildings has attracted increasing research attention for earthquake prevention and damage mitigation. However, there have been few studies using economic analyses. This study minimized the building life-cycle costs with two models used to quantify the household willingness to pay (WTP) for improved residential building seismic resilience based on two subjective utility models using expected utility theory and prospect theory. Then, the household WTP for residential building seismic resilience was calculated and compared with the corresponding incremental costs using parameters from the Standard for Seismic Resilience Assessment of Buildings for selected new residential buildings in Beijing in 2017 as an example. The results show that improving the residential building seismic resilience to the 1 or 2 star levels is financially feasible. However, further development to the 3 star level still relies on government subsidies or other support. This study also provides some policy implications to increase the household WTP for building seismic resilience.
|
Keywords
seismic resilience
households
willingness to pay (WTP)
subjective utility
|
Issue Date: 28 April 2021
|
|
|
[1] 宁晓晴, 戴君武. 地震可恢复性与非结构系统性态抗震研究略述[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2017, 37(3):85-92. NING X Q, DAI J W. A review of seismic resilience and performance-based seismic study of nonstructural systems[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 2017, 37(3):85-92. (in Chinese) [2] BRUNEAU M, CHANG S E, EGUCHI R T, et al. A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2003, 19(4):733-752. [3] 中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部. 建筑抗震韧性评价标准:GB/T 38591-2020[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社, 2020. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China. Standard for seismic resilience assessment of buildings:GB/T 38591-2020[S]. Beijing:Standards Press of China, 2015. (in Chinese) [4] DENG G Y, GAN L, HERNANDEZ M A. Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2015, 90:79-89. [5] SINGH R. Seismic risk and house prices:Evidence from earthquake fault zoning[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2019, 75:187-209. [6] DANIEL V E, FLORAX R J G M, RIETVELD P. Flooding risk and housing values:An economic assessment of environmental hazard[J]. Ecological Economics, 2009, 69(2):355-365. [7] ZHANG L. Flood hazards impact on neighborhood house prices:A spatial quantile regression analysis[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2016, 60:12-19. [8] ZHANG L, WU J, LIU H Y. Turning green into gold:A review on the economics of green buildings[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 172:2234-2245. [9] ZHANG L, LIU H Y, WU J. The price premium for green-labelled housing:Evidence from China[J]. Urban Studies, 2017, 54(15):3524-3541. [10] FISHER R J. Social desirability bias and the validity of indirect questioning[J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 1993, 20(2):303-315. [11] WEN Y K, KANG Y J. Minimum building life-cycle cost design criteria. I:Methodology[J]. Journal of Structural Engineering, 2001, 127(3):330-337. [12] BABCOCK B A. Using cumulative prospect theory to explain anomalous crop insurance coverage choice[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2015, 97(5):1371-1384. [13] 潘晨, 李全旺. 考虑主观风险态度的建筑结构地震风险决策[J]. 土木工程学报, 2018, 51(9):121-128. PAN C, LI Q W. Seismic risk decision-making of building structures considering subjective risk attitude[J]. China Civil Engineering Journal, 2018, 51(9):121-128. (in Chinese) [14] VON NEUMANN J, MORGENSTERN O. Theory of games and economic behavior[M]. New Jersey:Princeton University Press, 1944. [15] STEWART M G, ELLINGWOOD B R, MUELLER J. Homeland security:A case study in risk aversion for public decision-making[J]. International Journal of Risk Assessment & Management, 2011, 15(5-6):367-386. [16] 王晟, 蔡明超. 中国居民风险厌恶系数测定及影响因素分析:基于中国居民投资行为数据的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2011(8):192-206. WANG S, CAI M C. Measurement of risk aversion coefficient of Chinese residents and analysis of influencing factors:An empirical study based on investment behavior data of Chinese residents[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2011(8):192-206. (in Chinese) [17] HALEK M, EISENHAUER J G. Demography of risk aversion[J]. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2001, 68(1):1-24. [18] OUTREVILLE J F. Risk aversion, risk behavior, and demand for insurance:A Survey[J]. Journal of Insurance Issues, 2014, 37(2):158-186. [19] TVERSKY A, KAHNEMAN D. Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4):297-323. [20] CAMERER C F, TECK-HUA H. Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1994, 8(2):167-196. [21] GONZALEZ R, WU G. On the shape of the probability weighting function[J]. Cognitive Psychology, 1999, 38(1):129-166. [22] NILSSON H, RIESKAMP J, WAGENMAKERS E J. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory[J]. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 2011, 55(1):84-93. [23] Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). A benefit-cost model for the seismic rehabilitation of buildings:FEMA 227[S]. Washington, DC:Federal Emergency Management Agency, Building Seismic Safety Council, 1992. [24] 中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部. 建筑结构可靠性设计统一标准:GB 50068-018[S]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2018. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China. Unified standard for reliability design of building structures:GB 50068-018[S]. Beijing:China Building Industry Press, 2018. (in Chinese) [25] 张进, 陈伟, 孟骥, 等. 华西医院1635例汶川地震住院患者总体费用构成和影响因素分析[J]. 中国循证医学杂志, 2008, 8(9):703-709. ZHANG J, CHEN W, MENG J, et al. Research on structure and influencing factors of overall medical treatment expenses of 1635 inpatients of Wenchuan Earthquake in West China Hospital[J]. Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine, 2008, 8(9):703-709. (in Chinese) [26] 全国地震标准化技术委员会. 中国地震动参数区划图:GB 18306-015[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社, 2015. National Technical Committee of Earthquake Standardization. Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China:GB 18306-015[S]. Beijing:Standards Press of China, 2015. (in Chinese) [27] EISENHAUER J G, HALEK M. Prudence, risk aversion, and the demand for life insurance[J]. Applied Economics Letters, 1999, 6(4):239-242. [28] HERSCH J. Smoking, seat belts, and other risky consumer decisions:Differences by gender and race[J]. Managerial and Decision Economics, 1996, 17(5):471-481. [29] OUTREVILLE J F. The relationship between insurance and economic development:85 empirical papers for a review of the literature[J]. Risk Management and Insurance Review, 2013, 16(1):71-122. [30] VAN DEN BERG M, FORT R, BURGER K. Natural hazards and risk aversion:Experimental evidence from Latin America[C]//Paper presented at the International Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) Conference. Beijing, China:EAAE, 2009. [31] CAMERON L, SHAH M. Risk-taking behavior in the wake of natural disasters[J]. The Journal of Human Resources, 2015, 50(2):484-515. [32] KUNREUTHER H, PAULY M. Neglecting disaster:Why don't people insure against large losses?[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2004, 28(1):5-21. [33] KUNREUTHER H. Risk analysis and risk management in an uncertain world[J]. Risk Analysis, 2002, 22(4):655-664. [34] KUNREUTHER H, NOVEMSKY N, KAHNEMAN D. Making low probabilities useful[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2001, 23(2):103-120. |
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
|
Shared |
|
|
|
|
|
Discussed |
|
|
|
|