| PUBLIC SAFETY |
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A decision support model for crime investigation |
| WANG Jia, WANG Weixi, WANG Litao, SHEN Shifei |
| Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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Abstract ［Objective］ Artificial intelligence and big data technologies have been used to solve many scientific problems, including crime analysis. The investigation of criminal cases has always been a critical and difficult point in the domain of crime analysis. The investigation stage of criminal cases primarily consists of evidence collection and evidence reasoning, and comprehensive and efficient collection and reasoning of evidence are critical to the rapid detection of cases. Simultaneously, the significance of the various pieces of evidence in the case varies. Evidence of high importance gathered during the investigation stage is critical for the accurate and efficient resolution of crime cases. However, existing research lacks the application of artificial intelligence methods to crime investigation decision support. ［Methods］ Aiming at the problem of crime investigation, this research proposes a decision support model based on the Bayesian network to help domain experts determine the direction of the investigation and reasoning the criminal facts. First, the Bayesian network is used to reason the hypothesis of criminal facts. Second, the weighted information entropy method is used to calculate the importance of criminal evidence. Four different types of weighted information entropy methods are employed to test the efficiency of the calculation method. The two methodologies are then combined to create the decision support model for crime investigation. Finally, the proposed model is applied to 420 crime cases to verify its accuracy, and the proposed model is also applied to a real case analysis to illustrate the application process of the model. ［Results］ The analysis of 420 crime cases reveals that calculations based on weighted information entropy are the best of all four methods. The top 3, 5, and 10 evidence pieces provided with the weighted information entropy method all have the highest coverage of importance, given any arbitrary evidence missing ratio. Meanwhile, when 50% of the evidence is missing, the output result's coverage of the top 3, 5, and 10 important pieces of evidence is greater than 50%, 65%, and 80%, respectively; when 90% of the evidence is missing, the coverage of the top 3, 5, and 10 evidence pieces is greater than 40%, 60% and 75%, respectively. These suggest that the model's detection recommendations are effective and can be used to assist in crime detection. Furthermore, the analysis of a real-world case also shows that the proposed model can generate effective investigation suggestions and provide decision support for evidence collection and reasoning during the investigation stage. ［Conclusions］ Finally, the proposed decision support model for crime investigation can analyze available case information and generate effective investigation suggestions and reasoning conclusions. However, it should be noted that the model developed in this study does not completely replace the role of professionals in the field of criminal investigations but rather provides analysis results to scientifically support the decisions of subsequent investigators in the initial stages of the investigation. Furthermore, this study focuses on the research of evidence collection and reasoning during the investigation stage of criminal cases but pays limited attention to the “evidence standard” involved in the process of evidence collection. Therefore, we can continue to investigate this aspect in the future to aid intelligence and standardization of evidence collection during the investigation stage.
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| Keywords
social security
public order
crime investigation
evidence importance
Bayesian network
decision support
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Issue Date: 01 September 2023
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2023,
Vol. 63
