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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)    2014, Vol. 54 Issue (5) : 602-606     DOI:
Orginal Article |
Experimental evaluation of Beijing resale housing information diffusion during information transmission
Hong ZHANG,Yang ZHANG,Xuanbing CHEN
Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Abstract  

Housing information diffusion was measured to evaluate housing information transmission in Beijing. The information was measured based on Beijing's resale housing transactions. The results indicate that the degree of information diffusion for resale housing shows that the average variation of the predicted housing price was 15,200 experimental Yuan, of the offering price was 24,100 experimental Yuan and of the trading price was 6,700 experimental Yuan. The results also showed that the housing information diffused into all uninformed traders by the end of the resale housing's residual service life. The direction of the information diffusion varied and its degrees fluctuates, but the fluctuations tended to remain stable.

Keywords housing information      information transmission      information diffusion      resale housing      experimental economics     
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Issue Date: 15 May 2014
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Hong ZHANG
Yang ZHANG
Xuanbing CHEN
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Hong ZHANG,Yang ZHANG,Xuanbing CHEN. Experimental evaluation of Beijing resale housing information diffusion during information transmission[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2014, 54(5): 602-606.
URL:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/     OR     http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/Y2014/V54/I5/602
n实验年 Rn/(万实验元·实验年-1) Pn*/(万实验元)
2012 6.48 152.71
2013 6.59 150.62
2014 6.90 148.35
2015 6.84 145.69
2016 7.08 143.02
2017 7.39 140.02
2018 8.01 136.60
2019 8.32 132.45
2020 8.40 127.86
2021 8.66 123.04
2022 8.77 117.81
2023 8.61 112.31
2024 8.15 106.81
2025 8.89 101.62
2026 9.32 95.52
2027 9.64 88.78
2028 9.65 81.52
2029 10.21 74.02
2030 11.06 65.73
2031 11.37 56.31
2032 11.36 46.28
2033 11.91 35.97
2034 12.55 24.78
2035 12.60 12.60
  
实验变量 参数值
非知情交易人数 8人
知情交易人数 4人
二手房数 12套
实验参与激励 每人20 ¥RMB
实验交易激励 每50万实验币兑换1 ¥RMB
实验预测激励 奖励前6名被试每人20 ¥RMB
初始资金 每人500万实验元
初始资产 每人1套二手房
  
n
实验年
预测价均值F?n(万实验元· -1) 报价均值B?n(万实验元· -1) 成交价均值T?n(万实验元· -1)
2012 188.86 204.89 164.86
2013 188.26 228.79 193.33
2014 206.54 228.71 190.00
2015 204.39 209.88 215.00
2016 181.36 217.86 220.00
2017 200.19 205.58 231.33
2018 208.72 254.67 240.67
2019 223.29 176.67 220.00
2020 196.56 234.45 210.00
2021 191.79 240.45 200.00
2022 202.62 226.30 255.00
2023 227.71 221.11 261.67
2024 237.49 210.57 227.50
2025 214.51 218.91 230.00
2026 210.10 256.82 222.50
2027 211.54 232.73 215.00
2028 197.15 200.56 183.33
2029 174.71 192.86 150.00
2030 150.04 158.33 160.00
2031 128.04 123.73 100.00
2032 91.70 84.13 62.00
2033 60.33 38.00 31.67
2034 23.38 19.83 21.67
2035 13.81 9.33 9.33
  
n
实验年
以预测价表示 以报价表示 以成交价表示
F?n-Pn* DF(n,n+1) B?n-Pn* DB(n,n+1) T?n-Pn* DT(n,n+1)
(万实验元) (万实验元·实验年-1) (万实验元) (万实验元·实验年-1) (万实验元) (万实验元·实验年-1)
2012 36.15 -1.49 52.18 -25.99 12.15 -30.56
2013 37.64 -20.55 78.17 -2.19 42.71 1.06
2014 58.19 -0.51 80.36 16.17 41.65 -27.66
2015 58.70 20.36 64.19 -10.65 69.31 -7.67
2016 38.34 -21.83 74.84 9.28 76.98 -14.33
2017 60.17 -11.95 65.56 -52.51 91.31 -12.76
2018 72.12 -18.72 118.07 73.85 104.07 16.52
2019 90.84 22.14 44.22 -62.37 87.55 5.41
2020 68.70 -0.05 106.59 -10.82 82.14 5.18
2021 68.75 -16.06 117.41 8.92 76.96 -60.23
2022 84.81 -30.59 108.49 -0.31 137.19 -12.17
2023 115.40 -15.28 108.80 5.04 149.36 28.67
2024 130.68 17.79 103.76 -13.53 120.69 -7.69
2025 112.89 -1.69 117.29 -44.01 128.38 1.40
2026 114.58 -8.18 161.30 17.35 126.98 0.76
2027 122.76 7.13 143.95 24.91 126.22 24.41
2028 115.63 14.94 119.04 0.20 101.81 25.83
2029 100.69 16.38 118.84 26.24 75.98 -18.29
2030 84.31 12.58 92.60 25.18 94.27 50.58
2031 71.73 26.31 67.42 29.57 43.69 27.97
2032 45.42 21.06 37.85 35.82 15.72 20.02
2033 24.36 25.76 2.03 6.98 -4.30 -1.19
2034 -1.40 -2.61 -4.95 -1.68 -3.11 0.16
2035 1.21 - -3.27 - -3.27 -
均值 71.36 1.52 82.28 2.41 74.77 0.67
  
  
  
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