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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)    2015, Vol. 55 Issue (1) : 63-67     DOI:
Orginal Article |
Inhibitory effect of house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection: Evidence from resale housing trading experiments
Hong ZHANG1,2(),Xu SUN1,2,Yang ZHANG3
1. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China
2. Center for Urbanization and Industrial Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3. Department of Property Management, School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
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Abstract  

This article focuses on the inhibitory effect exerted by house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection in resale housing markets. Firstly, theoretical methods are developed for the bullish sentiment index (BSI) and the adverse selection level (ASL). Economics experiments were then designed to study the resale housing market characteristics in different bullish sentiment environments. The BSI and ASL were calculated from the experimental data to study the effect of bullish sentiment on the adverse selection. The research shows that severe information asymmetry is the main cause of adverse selection in the resale housing market. The bullish sentiment of traders in the market temporarily restrains the adverse selection to some extent. The degree of information asymmetry should be reduced to minimize the adverse selection problem in the resale housing market.

Keywords resale housing market      house price bullish sentiment      adverse selection      experimental economics     
Issue Date: 20 January 2015
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Hong ZHANG
Xu SUN
Yang ZHANG
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Hong ZHANG,Xu SUN,Yang ZHANG. Inhibitory effect of house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection: Evidence from resale housing trading experiments[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 63-67.
URL:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/     OR     http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/Y2015/V55/I1/63
实验分组 θ标准质量 V/θi U1(θi) U2(θi)
对照组 实验1 1 15000 5250 9000
2 33000 17250 21000
3 51000 41250 45000
实验组 实验2 1 15000 5250 9000
2 33000 17250 21000
3 51000 41250 45000
实验3 1 22500 5250 9000
2 49500 17250 21000
3 76500 41250 45000
  
区别项目 实验分组
实验1(对照组) 实验2(低上涨预期组) 实验3(高上涨预期组)
信息机制设置 质量信息在交易前公布 质量信息在本轮交易完成后公布 质量信息在本轮交易完成后公布
上涨预期水平 买方的上涨预期水平低 买方的上涨预期水平低 买方的上涨预期水平高
  
组别 指标 最小值 最大值 均值 标准差
实验1 成交住房平均价格/(元·m-2) 6000 48000 19526 9099
成交住房平均质量/标准质量 1.00 3.00 1.79 0.52
实验2 成交住房平均价格/(元·m-2) 9500 22000 15053 4831
成交住房平均质量/标准质量 1.00 2.00 1.21 0.41
实验3 成交住房平均价格/(元·m-2) 12000 43500 23158 9585
成交住房平均质量/标准质量 1.00 3.00 1.79 0.69
  
测算指标 实验1 实验2 实验3
房价上涨预期指标(BSI) 1 0.78 2.09
逆向选择程度(ASL) 1 1.34 1.06
  
  
  
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