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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)    2015, Vol. 55 Issue (1) : 80-86     DOI:
Orginal Article |
Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning
Yi LIU1(),Long LIU1,Wangfeng LI2,Yebin DONG3,Xiuqing ZHANG3
1. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2. Tsinghua Holdings Human Settlement Environment Institute,Beijing 100083, China
3. Dalian Municipal Design and Research Institute of Environmental Science, Dalian 116023, China
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Abstract  

An integrated method combining risk analysis, a CALPUFF dispersion model, and spatial analyses, were used to assess the regional atmospheric risk caused by major risk sources in petrochemical park plans. A typical petrochemical park in the planning stage was selected as the case study. The risks of six major sources, involving chlorine, phosgene, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and acrylonitrile, were simulated in different seasons. The results show that the atmospheric risk is increased in 98.7% of the region 1141.5 km2. In 28.2% of the area, i.e. 326.5 km2, human health may be adversely affected after some accidents. The meteorological conditions in the fall are not conducive to pollution dispersion. The highest risks come from the diphenyl methane diisocyanate producing(MDI) project that contributes more than 90% of the increment in the regional atmospheric risk.
Keywords planning environmental risk assessment      regional risk      CALPUFF dispersion model      petrochemical park      accidental risk     
Issue Date: 20 January 2015
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Yi LIU
Long LIU
Wangfeng LI
Yebin DONG
Xiuqing ZHANG
Cite this article:   
Yi LIU,Long LIU,Wangfeng LI, et al. Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 80-86.
URL:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/     OR     http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/EN/Y2015/V55/I1/80
  
项目名称 风险源 物质 在线量/t 泄漏方式 源强/(kg·s-1) Ht/m σy/m σz/m
规划炼油S1 硫磺回收装置 硫化氢 10[23] 全部泄漏 5.56 5 1.16 2.33
规划炼油S2 硫磺回收装置 硫化氢 10 全部泄漏 5.56 5 1.16 2.33
离子膜烧碱S3 液氯槽车 氯气 1 全部泄漏 0.56 2 0.47 0.93
MDI项目S4 液氯槽车 氯气 1 全部泄漏 0.56 2 0.47 0.93
光气化装置 光气 16 全部泄漏 8.89 2 0.47 0.93
丙烯腈项目S5 液氨储罐 氨气 3804 20%泄漏 105.56 2 0.47 0.93
丙烯腈储罐 丙烯腈 6800 1%泄漏 37.78 2 0.47 0.93
ABS树脂S6 生产装置 丙烯腈 150 10%泄漏 8.33 5 1.16 2.33
  
危险物质 风险基准质量浓度/(mg·m-3)
嗅阈值 TEEL-1 TEEL-2 TEEL-3
硫化氢 0.035[25] 0.71 38 70
氯气 0.06[26] 1.4 5.8 58
氨气 1.138[27] 21 110 770
光气 2[28] 0.4 1.2 3
丙烯腈 — 10 120 220
  
  
季度 风险标准 超过风险基准
的面积/km2		 占评价区域比
例/%
春季 低于嗅阈值 532.9 46.1
超过嗅阈值 327.8 28.4
超过TEEL-1 197.8 17.1
超过TEEL-2 48.9 4.2
超过TEEL-3 48.5 4.2
夏季 低于嗅阈值 270.3 23.4
超过嗅阈值 508.1 44.0
超过TEEL-1 251.2 21.7
超过TEEL-2 79.2 6.9
超过TEEL-3 47.1 4.1
秋季 低于嗅阈值 36.0 3.1
超过嗅阈值 338.3 29.3
超过TEEL-1 469.6 40.6
超过TEEL-2 152.0 13.1
超过TEEL-3 160.1 13.9
冬季 低于嗅阈值 270.3 23.4
超过嗅阈值 385.6 33.4
超过TEEL-1 350.0 30.3
超过TEEL-2 85.4 7.4
超过TEEL-3 64.7 5.6
  
季度 硫化
氢/S1		 硫化
氢/S2		 氯气
/S3		 氯气
/S4		 光气
/S4		 氨气
/S5		 丙烯
腈/S5		 丙烯
腈/S6
春季 3.3 3.1 3.7 0.0 78.4 19.0 7.9 0.0
夏季 2.5 3.3 2.6 0.0 79.9 28.4 10.5 0.0
秋季 6.7 9.0 3.2 0.2 90.3 24.0 12.3 0.2
冬季 6.1 4.3 4.2 0.0 95.3 26.8 13.9 0.0
  
  
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