ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING |
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Strategic game model for climate change negotiations based on utility theory |
WANG Can1,2, JIN Zhugang1,2, CAI Wenjia2 |
1. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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Abstract A game theory model incorporating utility theory was used to analyze climate change strategies for different countries. The model includes the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change related investments, temperature change uncertainties and their effects on GDP (gross domestic product) growth. The strategies are dynamic to test for the existence of the first-mover disadvantage. The first-mover disadvantage hypothesis is also confirmed by a typical real case. The strategic model indicates that each country should wait and urge others to make promises in advance, as has been seen in real negotiations.
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Keywords
climate change negotiations
utility theory
game theory
strategic model
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Issue Date: 15 September 2015
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