疏解非首都核心功能将对整个京津冀地区资源环境压力分布空间格局产生重要影响。该文从政策、经济、资源环境3个维度识别了潜在的疏解工业门类，通过Monte Carlo方法确定企业个体规模，运用离散选择模型，综合考虑区位因素、产业资源环境效率等变量，识别了首都重点行业潜在的疏解承接地，并结合企业规模-资源环境效率水平函数，预测京津冀地区的资源环境压力空间变化。结果表明："十三五"期间，非首都核心功能疏解将会造成北京市工业产值下降7%，主要资源消耗和污染物排放量减少9%以上，能有效缓解北京市水环境压力；京津冀区域除北京外其他地区工业产值平均增长5%左右，显著大于疏解产业带来的资源消耗与污染物排放增长。最后结合各地现有环境压力与承载力，提出了差别化的政策建议。
Abstract
The ‘Non-Capital Functions’ dispersion policy is significantly affecting the spatial distribution of resources and the environmental in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. This study estimates the changes in resource use and emissions at a regional level. The study classifies industrial sectors through a screening analysis of their policies, economics and environmental effects. The Monte Carlo method is used to determine individual firm sizes. A discrete choice model is used with location information and local environmental efficiencies. Relationships between the industrial size and the resource use and emission intensities are used to estimate the environmental impacts. The results show that during "the thirteenth five-year" plan, the industrial output in Beijing will decreases by 7%, while resource use and pollutant emissions will fall by over 9%, which will effectively alleviate water shortages in Beijing. In other cities in the region, the industrial output will rise by 5% on average, far more than the resource use and emissions increases. Various policy recommendations are presented to improve local environmental regulations.
关键词
非首都核心功能疏解 /
产业转移 /
离散选择模型 /
资源环境影响
Key words
capital industrial decentralization /
industrial reallocation /
discrete choice model /
environmental impact
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参考文献
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