新冠疫情发生城市仿真模型及防控措施评价——以武汉市为例

丁莹, 张健钦, 杨木, 宫鹏, 贾礼朋, 邓少存

清华大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (12) : 1452-1461.

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清华大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (12) : 1452-1461. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.25.043
新型冠状病毒

新冠疫情发生城市仿真模型及防控措施评价——以武汉市为例

  • 丁莹1,2, 张健钦1,2, 杨木2, 宫鹏3, 贾礼朋1,2, 邓少存1,2
作者信息 +

Communicable disease transmission model for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China

  • DING Ying1,2, ZHANG Jianqin1,2, YANG Mu2, GONG Peng3, JIA Lipeng1,2, DENG Shaocun1,2
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摘要

疫情防控对城市运行具有重要的影响，针对现有传染病模型难以精细化模拟评价防控措施的问题，以武汉市为例构建基于Agent的新型冠状病毒肺炎（corona virus disease 2019，COVID-19）疫情城市仿真模型，复现武汉疫情的传播过程。对疫情期间政府管控措施与医院诊疗水平进行量化描述，分析不同强度防疫措施下的感染情况及空间分布特征。并在此基础上模拟了复工后核酸检测的主动防疫效果。结果表明，该智能体建模方法能够高精度复现武汉疫情的时空传播过程，可以对政府管控措施与实施的诊疗方案进行仿真评价，为传染病预防控制部门提供科学的辅助决策信息。

Abstract

Epidemic prevention and control strongly affect people's lives in cities, but existing communicable disease models cannot accurately simulate the effects of prevention and control procedures. A city simulation model for the 2019 coronavirus epidemic was developed based on an Agent model for Wuhan, China to model the epidemic transmission process. The model includes the government control measures and the hospital diagnosis and treatment levels during the epidemic with analyses of the infection rates and spatial distributions for various epidemic control measures. The model was also used to model the active anti-epidemic impact of nucleic acid testing after people returned to work. The results show that this modeling method accurately reproduces the spatio-temporal transmission characteristics of the Wuhan epidemic. Thus, this method can be used to evaluate government control measures and to implement diagnosis and treatment plans for decision-making for infectious disease prevention and control.

关键词

COVID-19 / 智能体仿真 / 复杂网络 / 时空特征

Key words

COVID-19 / intelligent simulation / complex network / spatial-temporal features

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丁莹, 张健钦, 杨木, 宫鹏, 贾礼朋, 邓少存. 新冠疫情发生城市仿真模型及防控措施评价——以武汉市为例[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）. 2021, 61(12): 1452-1461 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.25.043
DING Ying, ZHANG Jianqin, YANG Mu, GONG Peng, JIA Lipeng, DENG Shaocun. Communicable disease transmission model for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2021, 61(12): 1452-1461 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.25.043

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基金

国家自然科学基金资助项目（41771413，41701473）；北京市自然科学基金资助项目（8202013）

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