微博用户的应急预警信息传播行为研究

陈安滢, 朱昊然, 苏国锋

清华大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6) : 527-535.

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清华大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6) : 527-535. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.26.045
防灾减灾

微博用户的应急预警信息传播行为研究

  • 陈安滢1,2, 朱昊然1,2, 苏国锋1,2
作者信息 +

Emergency warning information repost behavior of Weibo users

  • CHEN Anying1,2, ZHU Haoran1,2, SU Guofeng1,2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

以微博为代表的在线社交媒体在预警信息的传播中发挥着越来越重要的作用。该文以灾害应急预警信息为例，从用户的角度出发，分别从利益相关、理性思考和用户兴趣3个方面分析微博用户传播应急预警信息的动机。基于分析结果，提出以地域指数（突发事件是否和用户所在地域相关）和兴趣指数（用户平时转发微博的内容）作为特征变量对用户的预警转发行为进行预测。该预测模型预测正确率达到同类型研究水平，且具有可解释性。研究结果可以对用户转发行为进行快速预测和识别，有利于进行应急预警信息的定向投送，进一步扩大传播范围。

Abstract

Online social networks, such as Sina Weibo, are playing increasingly important roles in disseminating early warning information. This paper uses disaster warning information as an example to analyze the motivation of users for spreading emergency warning information on Sina Weibo from the perspectives of interest correlation, rational thinking and user interest. The results show that a regional index and an interest index predict user warning information repost behavior. The prediction accuracy of this model is similar to related research and is interpretable. This research can predict and identify user repost behavior which can facilitate delivery of emergency warning information and expand the information spread.

关键词

预警信息 / 地域分析 / 情感分析 / 兴趣分析 / 行为预测

Key words

warning information / geographic analysis / emotional analysis / interest analysis / behavior prediction

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陈安滢, 朱昊然, 苏国锋. 微博用户的应急预警信息传播行为研究[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）. 2021, 61(6): 527-535 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.26.045
CHEN Anying, ZHU Haoran, SU Guofeng. Emergency warning information repost behavior of Weibo users[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2021, 61(6): 527-535 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.26.045

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基金

科技部“十三五”重点研发计划（2018YFC0807000）

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