社交隔离对COVID-19的发展影响

黄梦瑶, 黄丽达, 袁宏永, 刘罡

清华大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (2) : 96-103.

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清华大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (2) : 96-103. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.21.001
专题：新型冠状病毒肺炎

社交隔离对COVID-19的发展影响

  • 黄梦瑶, 黄丽达, 袁宏永, 刘罡
作者信息 +

Effects of social isolation on COVID-19 trends

  • HUANG Mengyao, HUANG Lida, YUAN Hongyong, LIU Gang
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文章历史 +

摘要

社交隔离是控制疫情最为常见有效的手段之一，其具体施行方案会对疫情发展产生较大的影响。为研究不同社交隔离方案对新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的防疫效果，应对未来可能复发的疫情，该文利用SEIRS模型，从隔离时间和隔离程度2方面对4个国家的疫情态势进行仿真。结果表明，在采取短期社交隔离方案时，较长时间、较低程度的隔离对于医疗状况好、人口少的国家效果最佳，而较短时间、较高程度的隔离对于医疗状况较差、人口多的国家效果最佳；采取长期社交隔离方案直至疫情衰退时，50%的隔离程度是控制疫情发展的转折点。长期社交隔离方案的防疫效果要优于短期社交隔离方案。

Abstract

Social isolation is the most common and effective way to control disease transmission during pandemics with the specific implementations great impacting the results. This study used the SEIRS model to analyze the pandemic conditions in 4 countries to investigate the effectiveness of various social isolation schemes on the spread of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to prepare for additional future outbreaks with emphasis on the effects of the isolation duration and degree. The results show that for short-term social isolation, longer isolation time and lower isolation degree worked better for countries with good medical facilities and small populations while shorter isolation time and higher isolation degree worked better for countries with general medical facilities and large populations. For long-term social isolation until COVID-19 is disappeared, a 50% degree of isolation provided effective results. Overall, long-term social isolation is more effective than short-term isolation.

关键词

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19) / 社交隔离 / SEIRS模型 / 疫情峰值

Key words

corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) / social isolation / susceptible exposed infectious removed susceptible (SEIRS) model / pandemic peak

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黄梦瑶, 黄丽达, 袁宏永, 刘罡. 社交隔离对COVID-19的发展影响[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）. 2021, 61(2): 96-103 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.21.001
HUANG Mengyao, HUANG Lida, YUAN Hongyong, LIU Gang. Effects of social isolation on COVID-19 trends[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2021, 61(2): 96-103 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.21.001

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基金

黄丽达,博士后,E-mail:huanglida@tsinghua.edu.cn

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