许多事故和灾害事件表明,城市基础设施系统之间的关联性可能会逐级放大事故或灾害的初始影响,对城市、地区乃至国家产生非常大的危害,因此研究在外界影响下城市基础设施系统之间关联性的表现和特征非常重要。该文以风险容忍度框架为基础,对某城市区域的供水和供电网络的关联性开展研究,根据若干网络参数的演化和分布特点,分析了供水和供电网络面临外界随机冲击下的风险容忍度。随后对供水和供电网络间的地理关联性进行分析,识别出了断电场景下供水网络中的关键组分。该研究为城市基础设施防护、规划、应急处置和韧性提升提供了支撑和参考。
Abstract
[Objective] Historical events suggest that infrastructure interdependencies exhibit negative influence in an amplifying or cascading way, leading to remarkably outcomes on an urban, regional, or even national scale. Therefore, studies on infrastructure interdependencies play a vital role. The interdependency-caused vulnerability of water and electricity supply networks, as components of city lifeline, generally poses risks to people's life safety, daily life, and industry functioning. [Methods] A case study of water and electricity supply networks of a district was conducted to measure their interdependencies in the frame of attack tolerance, thus innovatively advancing from its usual use in studies on the World Wide Web and social networks. Infrastructure systems tend to possess certain spatial structures, especially network-like ones such as water and electricity supply networks, rendering topological methods effective and straightforward. An attack tolerance framework based on graph theory was applied in this research. Two graph models were established using the Python NetworkX library prior to checking the correctness of the modeling. The degree of each vertex was calculated, and its frequency density curve was drawn to match the network characteristics with those of an exponential network, such as a water or electricity supply network. Subsequently, the fragmentation of the networks was studied. When the vertices were removed to simulate a random external attack, the original network as a whole disintegrated into multiple disconnected small components known as vertex clusters. This process is called fragmentation. The quantitative characteristics of vertex clusters, together with the basic network index called network diameter, served as indices of attack tolerance. The curves of the indices above the proportion of removed vertices and the distribution scatters of cluster size at a certain removed proportion were drawn to measure and compare the attack tolerance between the two networks. In addition, the distribution scatters were fit to an exponential form including two parameters and the curve of the parameters to the removed proportion was drawn. Finally, this study introduced a measure of geographical interdependency between water and electricity networks based on a previous attack tolerance study. The two networks were placed in the same coordination system that had been gridded rectangularly with a certain fineness. The hypothesis was that the electricity of each water vertex was provided by the nearest electricity vertex; the former was removed when the latter malfunctions. Vertices in each rectangle of the grid were completely removed to simulate a blackout of a district, and a geographical interdependency index was defined for every grid reference in accordance with the fragmentation indices. This research visualized the spatial distribution of the interdependency index at a certain grid fineness, through which the critical sections could be identified. [Results] The attack tolerance of the water supply network was slightly remarkable, and the southeast region of the water supply network of this district was the most dependent on the electricity supply network. [Conclusions] This work introduced an interdependency analysis method based on the framework of attack tolerance of a topological network and provided guidelines for the protection of infrastructure systems, urban planning, contingency plans, and resilience enhancements.
关键词
城市基础设施 /
供水网络 /
供电网络 /
风险容忍度 /
地理关联性
Key words
city infrastructure /
water supply network /
electricity supply network /
attack tolerance /
geographical interdependency[JP]
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基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(72091512)
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