突发事件协同研判中多个主体决策立足的收益路径不同， 易导致突发事件研判失效、风险事件损失扩大， 是目前亟待解决的关键性问题。该文以前景理论-心理账户（PT-MA）为基础， 应用演化博弈模型研究了突发事件协同研判的参与主体（公众、一线人员、应急指挥部）之间复杂行为的互动机制， 分析了各博弈主体策略选择的稳定性， 并对关键参数变化下的行为演化路径进行仿真分析。模型分析结果表明：三方主体的协同研判策略选择存在3个平衡点； 当应急指挥部的感知收益提高且处罚力度加大时， 系统将达到最优。仿真分析结果表明：通过调整初始概率、收获感知参照点和惩罚力度3个参数， 主体策略趋于正向， 且收敛速度随着参数的增加而显著提升。因此可以通过加大奖励措施， 提升决策初始概率值； 通过表彰先进个人和组织公益宣讲等， 降低收益感知参考点； 通过完善相关惩罚条例并增加监督举报措施， 提高消极策略的惩罚力度。以此促进协同研判主体的策略选择向积极方向演化。
Abstract
[Objective] Emergency sensemaking can control a situation by identifying the warning signs early and before the situation deteriorates further. However, the different benefit paths of multiagents in emergency sensemaking can easily lead to sensemaking failure and additional escalation of risk event losses. Therefore, it is vital to study how to influence the strategic choice of the relevant agents in sensemaking in the real world. [Methods] Based on the prospect theory-mental account, this report applied the evolutionary game model to study the following complex behavior mechanism among the multiagents in emergency sensemaking: the public (truthfully providing information or falsely providing information), frontline personnel (efficiently reporting or inefficiently reporting), and emergency command (group wisdom or group myth). According to different strategic choices, the payoff matrix is constructed, and the evolutionary replication dynamic equation is obtained using the matrix; however, the three evolutionary replication dynamic equations cannot directly determine the equilibrium point of the tripartite strategy. In this study, the Jacobian matrix is obtained by partial derivation of the forward decision probability of three differential equations, and the stability of the strategy choice of each game agent is analyzed by calculating the eigenvalues of the matrix. In order to further analyze the influence of key elements on the evolution process and results of the game. The computer simulation software MATLAB was used to establish a game model and assign initial values to each parameter in the model. The key parameters affecting the evolution path of decision-making behavior are extracted and analyzed by adjusting the initial values of the parameters. [Results] Solving the game model provides the following findings: 1) When the labor cost of frontline personnel is high, or the punishment is weak, the cost of the emergency command choosing a speculative strategy is substantially reduced. In this case, emergency sensemaking completely depends on the spontaneous behavior of the public, resulting in a lack of coordination efficiency and accurate judgment from frontline personnel and the emergency command. 2) By increasing the reward subsidies for positive decision-making by frontline personnel and increasing the penalties for negative decision-making, the signs of emergencies can be better understood and constructed by multiagents, and the emergency command can respond more rapidly. 3) When the perceived benefit of the emergency command to fully respond to the emergency is increased, the penalty of being tracked for choosing the speculative strategy is increased, and the system will stabilize at the optimal equilibrium point (1, 1, 1). 4) Simulation studies of the game model reveal that by adjusting the initial probabilities of the agents' strategies, perceptual reference points, and the intensity of punishment, the agents' strategic choices gradually tend toward positive choices. The convergence speed improves substantially with the increase of these parameters. [Conclusions] The results of this study showed that the perception of benefits influences the initial probability of the agents' strategy choice, and the initial probability of the choice is the factor that affects the agents' positive strategy choice. While expanding the incentive policy to encourage the agents' positive sensemaking behavior, the supervision and reporting measures should be increased to neglect the public interest behavior, and the corresponding agent should be severely punished. In addition to the established reward and punishment measures, subjective factors significantly influence decision-making. In practice, excellent individuals should be commended, and public welfare campaigns should be organized to reduce the perceptual reference points of income, allowing the agents to understand the necessity of emergency sensemaking work and make positive decisions spontaneously.
关键词
突发事件 /
协同研判 /
前景理论 /
心理账户 /
演化博弈
Key words
emergency /
sensemaking /
prospect theory /
mental accounts /
evolutionary game
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基金
陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题研究项目（2022HZ1386）；西安市科技计划软科学研究项目（22RKYJ0064）
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