1965—2023年全球洪水事件演变趋势与风险因素分析

刘家宏, 张萌雪, 王佳, 梅超

清华大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (10) : 1853-1867.

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清华大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (10) : 1853-1867. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2025.21.038
水利水电工程

1965—2023年全球洪水事件演变趋势与风险因素分析

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Evolution trend of global flood events and risk analysis from 1965 to 2023

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摘要

全球气候变化和人类活动影响下,洪水事件发生的频率和强度呈显著增加趋势。该文基于紧急灾难数据库(EM-DAT)利用数理统计法分析了1965—2023年全球洪水事件的时空演变规律; 从危害性、暴露度、脆弱性3个角度遴选了地理高程、降水量、人口密度及城市化率等作为洪水风险分析的主要因素,探究了洪水风险因素的时空变化并利用熵权法计算了世界六大洲的洪水风险值。主要结论如下:1) 从1965年到2023年,全球洪水事件呈现波动上升趋势,随着防灾减灾能力的提升,影响人数和死亡人数自20世纪90年代以来呈现下降趋势; 其中,亚洲、非洲和南美洲地区洪水发生频繁。海地单位国土面积洪水发生次数最高,为23次/104km2。孟加拉国单位国土面积洪水影响人数和死亡人数最高,59年累计值分别达到2 710万人/104km2和3 313人/104km2。2) 世界六大洲的洪水危害性、暴露度和脆弱性具有显著差异性,其中人口密度和降水对洪水风险影响程度最大,权重分别为0.33和0.30; 亚洲洪水风险最高,并在1965—2023年呈显著增加趋势。未来研究可基于人口流动性进一步探讨暴露度变化,并结合洪水应对能力等影响脆弱性的因素分析,以更全面地揭示洪水风险的动态特征。

Abstract

Objective: The frequency and intensity of global flood events are increasing, which is deeply driven by climate change and human activities. The key risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are interconnected and collectively influence the occurrence and progression of flood disasters. Therefore, the relationships between these three factors need to be understood, and a comprehensive indicator system for the integrated assessment of flood risk needs to be developed. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of global flood events from 1965 to 2023. Moreover, based on the key risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the flood risk were revealed, which could provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and disaster mitigation decision-making. Methods: This study uses the Emergency Events Database, which includes global flood data, to analyze flood events from 1965 to 2023. This study conducts a trend analysis of the global flood occurrence, affected population, and mortality per unit area from 1965 to 2023. Based on the affected population and mortality per unit area, floods in six continents are classified into light, moderate, and severe categories using the percentage method. Spatial analysis of the flood occurrence, affected population, and mortality per unit area was performed for each country. The results showed the spatial distribution and impact intensity of flood disasters in different regions. In addition, key risk indicators, such as geographic elevation, precipitation, population density, and urbanization rate, are selected to analyze the characteristics of flood risk. Elevation and precipitation represent hazards. Population density indicates exposure, and urbanization rate reflects vulnerability. Trend analysis of these indicators was performed for three distinct periods, i.e., 1965-1984, 1985-2004, and 2005-2023. To examine the spatial trends of these indicators across countries over the entire study period, the Theil-Sen slope estimation method was employed. The entropy weight method was applied to calculate the weight of each risk indicator, and the flood risk values of six continents from 1965 to 2023 were calculated. Results: The main results are as follows: (1) From 1965 to 2023, global flood events show a fluctuating upward trend, although the affected population and number of deaths have shown a downward trend since the 1990s. At the continental level, floods occur most frequently in Asia, Africa, and South America, with a total of 2 322, 1 266, and 1 084 events, respectively. At the national level, Haiti experiences the highest frequency of flood events per unit area, with 23 events per 104 km2. Bangladesh has the highest total number of flood-affected people per unit area, with 27.1 million people per 104 km2, and the highest record of cumulative deaths, with 3 313 deaths per 104 km2. (2) Flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability vary significantly across six continents. Among the indicators, population density and precipitation show the greatest influence on flood risk, with weights of 0.33 and 0.30, respectively. From 1965 to 2023, an obvious regional variation in flood risk across six continents is detected. The flood risk in Asia is significantly higher than that in other continents, with the flood risk values of both Asia and Africa showing a significant increase. By contrast, the flood risk value of South America decreased after 2010. Europe and North America show relatively low and stable flood risk values. Oceania exhibits the lowest flood risk values with significant fluctuations. Conclusions: This study conducts not only a systematic analysis of global flood events over a long time series but also an analysis of the changes in risk indicators, such as precipitation, geographic elevation, population density, and urbanization rate, from 1965 to 2023. Moreover, the relative impact of different indicators is quantified, which clarifies their respective contributions to flood risk. The results further revealed the comprehensively changing characteristics of flood risk. The findings provide guidance and evidence to inform flood prevention planning and disaster response strategies. In the future, exposure change based on population mobility and integrated adaptive capacity should be considered to reveal the dynamic characteristics of flood risk.

关键词

全球洪水 / 时空特征 / 洪水风险 / 风险因素 / 紧急灾难数据库(EM-DAT)

Key words

global flood / spatiotemporal characteristics / flood risk / risk factors / Emergency Events Database

引用本文

导出引用
刘家宏, 张萌雪, 王佳, . 1965—2023年全球洪水事件演变趋势与风险因素分析[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版). 2025, 65(10): 1853-1867 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2025.21.038
Jiahong LIU, Mengxue ZHANG, Jia WANG, et al. Evolution trend of global flood events and risk analysis from 1965 to 2023[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2025, 65(10): 1853-1867 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2025.21.038
中图分类号: TV122.2   

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基金

国家自然科学基金重大项目(52192671)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52409048)
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3090600)
国家重点研发计划(2022YFE0205200)
水利部数字孪生流域重点实验室开放研究基金(20202042022)

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