Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model

LI Quanwang; WANG Cao; ZOU Aming; PANG Long; ZHANG Long

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.25.017

PDF(2013 KB)

Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2016, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8) : 801-805. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.25.017

CIVIL ENGINEERING

Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model

{{article.zuoZhe_EN}}

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Previous hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas have ignored the intermittent nature of hurrucanes. This paper presents an hurricane damage assessment method that accounts for the intermittency. A Poisson model is used in this paper to describe the hurricane stochastic process with explicit formulas for the hurricane damage assessment. Hurricane data for Miami-Dade County, USA, from 1900 to 2010 were used to illustrate the method. The Poisson model provides a reasonable description of the hurricane stochastic characteristics. The mean and the variance of the hurricane damage are overestimated while the coefficient of variance is underestimated if the intermittency is ignored. For example, for a 50-year service period, the mean cumulative hurricane damage is overestimated by 41.4% while the variance is over estimated by 20.05% if the intermittency is ignored.

Key words

hurricanes / damage assessment / Poisson process / intermittency / probabilistic model

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

LI Quanwang, WANG Cao, ZOU Aming, PANG Long, ZHANG Long. Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2016, 56(8): 801-805 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.25.017

References

[1] Lin N,Emanuel K,Oppenheimer M,et al.Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2012,2(6):462-467.
[2] 杨林,曹春荣,林秋,等.台风"苏力"灾害风险与防御行为效益评估[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(1):106-111.YANG Lin,CAO Chunrong,LIN Qiu,et al.Study on disaster risk of typhoon Soulik and its prevention benefit assessment[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(1):106-111.(in Chinese)
[3] Huang Z,Rosowsky D V,Sparks P R.Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures[J].Reliability Engineering and System Sa[KG-0.2mm]fety,2001,74:239-249.
[4] Li Y,Ellingwood B R.Hurricane damage to residential construction in the US:Importance of uncertainty modeling in risk assessment[J].Engineering Structures,2006,28:1009-1018.
[5] Bjarnadottir S,Li Y,Stewart M G.A probabilistic-based framework for impact and adaptation assessment of climate change on hurricane damage risks and costs[J].Structural Safety,2011,33:173-185.
[6] Li Y,Stewart M G.Cyclone damage risks caused by enhanced greenhouse conditions and economic viability of strengthened residential construction[J].Natural Hazard Review,2011,12:9-18.
[7] Mo H M,Hong H P,Fan F.Estimating the extreme wind speed for regions in China using surface wind observations and reanalysis data[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2015,143:19-33.
[8] Klima K,Lin N,Emanuel K,et al.Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade county,Florida[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2012,46:636-642.
[9] Emanuel K.Divine Wind:The History and Science of Hurricanes[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2005.
[10] Vickery P J,Twisdale L A.Prediction of hurricane wind speed in the United States[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,1995,121(11):1691-1709.
[11] 葛余博.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.GE Yubo.Probability and Statistics[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2005.(in Chinese)
[12] Stewart M G,Rosowsky D V,Huang Z.Hurricane risks and economic viability of strengthened construction[J].Natural Hazards Review,2003,4:12-19.