Path analysis attack prediction method for electric power CPS

XIA Zhuoqun; LI Wenhuan; JIANG Lalin; XU Ming

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.26.012

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2018, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (2) : 157-163. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.26.012

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Path analysis attack prediction method for electric power CPS

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Abstract

The electric power industry needs to defend against multi-step cross-domain attacks seeking to damage electric power CPS. This paper presents path analysisa electric power CPS attack prediction method that defines a common attack graph based on a probability attack graph model. The Cross-origin attack probability and the cross-origin mean time to compromise are used to quantify the exploit difficulty and the attacker proficiency for offensive and defensive actions to protect the power infrastructure. When attacks are detected in real time, the improved Dijkstra algorithm will enumerate possible follow-up attack paths. The two quantitative indicators are combined to predict the greatest threat attack path. Simulations show that this method can more effectively predict the attack path as a good defensive strategy for electric power CPS security management.

Key words

electric CPS security / attack probability graph / cross-origin attack probability / cross-origin mean time / path prediction

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XIA Zhuoqun, LI Wenhuan, JIANG Lalin, XU Ming. Path analysis attack prediction method for electric power CPS[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2018, 58(2): 157-163 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2018.26.012

References

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