Comparative research on disasters evolution of over-flow and dam-break mode based on conditional judgment model

CHEN Changkun; XU Tong; JI Lulu; ZHANG Yulun; LEI Peng

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.21.014

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2021, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6) : 518-526. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.21.014

DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION

Comparative research on disasters evolution of over-flow and dam-break mode based on conditional judgment model

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Abstract

A model was developed to describe the evolution of over-flow and dam-break disasters based on critical judgments of the disaster evolution. The model accounts for the effects of various types of causes, self-recovery characteristics, repairs, internal noise and impacts from outside the system. The model was then used in a parametric study of critical disaster parameter values and disaster evolution delay coefficients. The results indicate that the destructive impact of dam-breaks is far greater than that of overflows. In addition, increasing the critical value of the disaster significantly affects the evolution of an over-flow disaster. The disaster losses at a given time, especially the event evolution following a dam break, are reduced by a larger delay coefficient. This models gives insights on disaster evolution that can be used to improve preparedness and disaster response management.

Key words

disaster evolution network / conditional judgment / over-flow and dam-break disasters / critical value of a disaster / delay coefficient

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CHEN Changkun, XU Tong, JI Lulu, ZHANG Yulun, LEI Peng. Comparative research on disasters evolution of over-flow and dam-break mode based on conditional judgment model[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2021, 61(6): 518-526 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2020.21.014

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