Emergency decision-making method for rainstorm disasters based on spatiotemporal scenario analyses

JIANG Bo; CHEN Tao; YUAN Hongyong; FAN Weicheng

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.22.025

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2022, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (1) : 52-59. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.22.025

SPECIAL SECTION:DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION

Emergency decision-making method for rainstorm disasters based on spatiotemporal scenario analyses

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Abstract

Rainstorm induced flooding greatly impacts the environment which leads to secondary events and complicates emergency responses. This study analyzes evaluation methods for rainstorm disasters in emerging disaster environments. An emergency decision-making method is developed for rainstorm disasters based on a Markov decision making model that considers the temporal and spatial characteristics of the rainstorm effects. The optimal decision-making strategy that gives the minimum disaster loss is identified by analyzing the rainstorm effects and environmental conditions in a single space along with the impact of various emergency responses. The results show that the spatiotemporal analysis of the rainstorm disaster scenarios based on the Markov decision making process can help decision makers adjust emergency response strategies as the conditions develop to minimize the losses through improved emergency decision-making.

Key words

rainstorms / Markov decision making model / spatiotemporal analysis / disaster

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JIANG Bo, CHEN Tao, YUAN Hongyong, FAN Weicheng. Emergency decision-making method for rainstorm disasters based on spatiotemporal scenario analyses[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2022, 62(1): 52-59 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.22.025

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