Mapping the characteristics and sensitivities of China's low-carbon energy supply in 2050

MA Linwei; YUAN Yuan; LI Zheng

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.25.020

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2022, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (4) : 802-809. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.25.020

Mapping the characteristics and sensitivities of China's low-carbon energy supply in 2050

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Abstract

China's peak carbon and carbon neutrality policy targets are accelerating the low-carbon transition of China's energy system. A clear, complete picture of the future low-carbon energy system is needed to provide forward-looking guidance for coordinated country-wide actions. However, there are few studies of the characteristics and sensitivities of China's future low-carbon energy supply. This paper presents a coupled energy-material flow analysis with a sensitivity analysis as a measurement basis for the 2050 low-carbon energy supply system that shows the overall energy flows and the carbon dioxide sources and sinks with analyses of the impacts on the total carbon dioxide emissions caused by changing the structures and efficiencies of the main components. The results indicate that the low-carbon energy system will have some key patterns including a primary energy and power generation structure dominated by non-fossil fuel energy supplies and a high proportion of electricity use in end-use sectors. The carbon dioxide emissions will include negative emissions by the power sector and large emissions by the industrial sector. The total carbon dioxide emissions of this system are most sensitive to changes in the share of electricity use by the industrial sector and changes in the fossil energy power generation efficiencies, followed by the proportion of wind power generation, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for coal power generation, and the use of waste heat power generation. Therefore, the government needs to strictly control the direct end-use of fossil energy, accelerate low-carbon power generation development, strengthen the development of low-carbon pathways for difficult to reform emission sectors, and increase non-electric utilization of non-fossil energy sources. The government must also encourage the vigorous development of smart energy systems to ensure multi-energy usage systems.

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low-carbon energy systems / energy consumption / carbon dioxide emissions / energy-material coupling flow analyses / sensitivity analyses

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MA Linwei, YUAN Yuan, LI Zheng. Mapping the characteristics and sensitivities of China's low-carbon energy supply in 2050[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2022, 62(4): 802-809 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.25.020

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