Discovery and evolution of hot topics of network public opinion in emergencies based on time-series supernetwork

CHEN Shuting; SHU Xueming; HU Jun; XIE Xuecai; ZHANG Lei; ZHANG Jia

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.22.007

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2023, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (6) : 968-979. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.22.007

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Discovery and evolution of hot topics of network public opinion in emergencies based on time-series supernetwork

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[Objective] Network public opinion security is an important part of social security, and identifying and tracking hot topics is the basis for the governance of online public opinion in emergencies. Existing research on the evolution of hot topics is limited by text semantics, and network public opinion text is severely limited by sparsity. Existing online public opinion event models based on complex network analysis focus on the static and isolated dimension of user characteristics, which provides an incomplete representation of online public opinion events. Meanwhile, existing online public opinion event models based on the supernetwork refer to the life-cycle theory of public opinion, divide time windows according to the development stage of public opinion, and construct them as nodes in the network. Hence, these models are limited to retrospective studies and are difficult to use.[Methods] To address the aforementioned problems, first, a supernetwork model with four levels—social, content, topic, and emotion—was constructed. This model departed from previously isolated interpretations of relevant factors of hot topics in online public opinion and effectively utilized the internal relationship between multiple public opinion elements and hot topics. The model provided a reference for mining hot topic information with complex network characteristics. Second, considering the universality and timeliness of the model, time information was constructed differently from traditional research, which was based on the development stage of public opinion. In this study, time windows were divided equidistantly with a certain granularity, and the order of time windows, rather than the nodes in the network, represented the connectivity characteristics of the network. To discover, migrate, and predict hot topics, a topic popularity index based on the centrality of the supernetwork and a topic popularity change rate index based on the hypernetwork centrality change rate were proposed in this paper. These indices were verified and analyzed for the “Gansu Baiyin Marathon” Microblog public opinion event.[Results] The findings of this study are as follows: (1) The time-series supernetwork model clearly represents network public opinion events and has significant advantages over the traditional methods in model visualization. (2) The topic popularity index accurately identifies the hot topics in each time window and evaluates the changes in topic popularity throughout the development of the event. For example, “accident notification” was the most popular topic in the early stage of the public opinion event, and its heat decreased with fluctuation thereafter. The “event guarantee” topic remained popular throughout the development of the event, and its popularity fluctuated on a daily basis. (3) Based on the topic popularity curve and network structure, topics with similar communities are found to migrate, such as “liability compensation”, “competition guarantee”, and “popular science knowledge”. (4) The topic popularity change rate index effectively predicts hot topics in the next time window.[Conclusions] This paper provides a general time-series model for network public opinion events with high sparsity and complex network characteristics. Topic heat and heat change rate indices can lead to the accurate identification of hot topics as well as the accurate tracking of the evolution, migration, and prediction of hot topics. Further, this study provides intuitive and useful guidance for the governance of online public opinion in real-world situations.

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supernetwork / network public opinion / centrality / Microblog topic

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CHEN Shuting, SHU Xueming, HU Jun, XIE Xuecai, ZHANG Lei, ZHANG Jia. Discovery and evolution of hot topics of network public opinion in emergencies based on time-series supernetwork[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2023, 63(6): 968-979 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.22.007

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