Application and prospects of the computable general equilibrium model in low-carbon transportation policies

WANG Yan; OU Guoli

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.26.033

PDF(4756 KB)

Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2023, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (11) : 1693-1706. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.26.033

LOW-CARBON TRANSPORTATION & GREEN DEVELOPMENT

Application and prospects of the computable general equilibrium model in low-carbon transportation policies

{{article.zuoZhe_EN}}

Author information +

History +

Abstract

[Significance］ The issue of climate change is extremely complex and encompasses multiple factors such as the environment, economy, society, and related aspects. With the ongoing maturation of complex system modeling technology, low-carbon transportation research using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model presents a new approach to policy evaluation. The CGE model has three primary advantages for analyzing the economic challenges of transitioning to low-carbon transportation. First, the approach has a solid microeconomic foundation that can directly reflect the mechanism and influence of economic subjects' behavior under the assumption of a rational economic player. Second, CGE models are capable of fully simulating the connections of different economic sectors, which can uncover the transmission effect of transportation policy impact among various sectors, as well as the response of various sectors to the policy impact. Third, the model has two major types, static and dynamic CGE models, which can analyze the short- and long-term impact of different policies, respectively. As an essential prediction tool for policy impact and trend analysis, CGE models can comprehensively reveal the interaction characteristics between the transportation industry and the whole national economy, enabling the prediction of the economic and social impact of low-carbon transportation policies. ［Progress］ This study investigates contemporary research on transportation policies based on the CGE model. A total of 78 relevant empirical studies are collected from the Web of Science, Science Direct, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure, of which more than 50% focus on predicting the impact of low-carbon transportation policies, indicating that the investigation of traffic-related carbon emissions has gradually become a popular topic of empirical analysis using CGE models. The research topics include: (1) The influence of low-carbon transportation economic incentives, such as carbon tax, emission trading scheme, and transportation subsidies. (2) The application effect of low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles and carbon capture and storage. (3) The effect of low-carbon transportation urban planning, including land use, vehicle speed limits, walking-oriented urban design, and bicycle-oriented urban space development. (4) Predicting the economic and social impact of the implementation of nationally determined contributions and fuel economy standards. Previous research establishes a solid foundation for prediction and policy analysis in low-carbon transportation research; however, in the context of China's 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality goals, some issues remain that require further exploration and investigation. ［Conclusions and Prospects］ First, regarding emissions reduction policies, differing transportation needs, transportation structure, energy structure, technical level, and macropolicies will affect transportation carbon emissions. The carbon emissions reduction potential of various policies requires further study, and it is essential to propose structured solutions referencing the prediction and design of composite system transportation emissions reduction policies. Based on China's 1+N policy system for advancing the dual carbon goals, this study constructs a low-carbon transportation policy matrix based on the “avoid/shift/improve-planning/regulatory/economic/information/technological (ASI-PREIT)” structure, producing a proposed “policy basket” for low-carbon transportation CGE modeling. This policy matrix will comprehensively reveal the correlation between policy tools for low-carbon transportation CGE modeling and help put forward structured low-carbon solutions. Second, in terms of model construction, accessibility is the most intuitive factor for transportation. As with other sectors, treating the transportation sector simply as a product production sector risks neglecting network and external benefits; therefore, this study proposes the inclusion of transportation accessibility factors in low-carbon transportation CGE models as spatial computable general equilibrium model to identify regional economic correlations and regional product flow. Third, in terms of synergies, carbon emissions reduction in transportation is crucial to achieving China's dual carbon goals and can advance innovation and economic growth, leveraging a wide range of synergies, including sustainable development, improving public health, and enhancing the overall quality of life. Currently, increasingly severe ecological and environmental challenges are forcing global economies to reassess the GDP-centered development model, seeking balanced and sustainable development strategies that include environment, economy, and society. This study proposes the development of a comprehensive low-carbon transportation CGE model to compare and analyze the optimal solutions for balancing the co-benefits of environment-economy-society from a global perspective and design low-carbon transportation policy combinations to advance sustainable development. In summary, this study endeavors to systematically review the empirical research applying CGE models in the field of low-carbon transportation, provide a reference for expanding the research on low-carbon transportation, and help policymakers and the transportation sector achieve China's dual carbon goals.

Key words

computable general equilibrium model / low-carbon transportation / policy matrix / accessibility / co-benefits

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

WANG Yan, OU Guoli. Application and prospects of the computable general equilibrium model in low-carbon transportation policies[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2023, 63(11): 1693-1706 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.26.033

References

[1] Word Bank Group. Country climate and development report (CCDR) for China[R]. Washington, DC:The World Bank Group, 2022.
[2] 陈迎.碳中和概念再辨析[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2022, 32(4):1-12. CHEN Y. A re-analysis of the concept of carbon neutrality[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022, 32(4):1-12.(in Chinese)
[3] 张欣.可计算一般均衡模型的基本原理与编程[M]. 2版.上海:格致出版社, 2018. ZHANG X. Principles of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling and programming[M]. 2nd ed. Shanghai:Truth and Wisdom Press, 2018.(in Chinese)
[4] 米志付.气候变化与经济发展:综合评估建模方法及其应用[M].上海:上海三联书店, 2021. MI Z F. Climate change and economic development integrated assessment modeling method and its application[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Joint Publishing Company, 2021.(in Chinese)
[5] LEONTIEF W W. The structure of the American economy 1919-1929[M]. Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 1941.
[6] JOHANSEN L. A multi-sectoral study of economic growth[M]. Amsterdam:North-Holland, 1960.
[7] SCARF H. The approximation of fixed points of a continuous mapping[J]. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 1967, 15(5):1328-1343.
[8] ADELMAN I, ROBINSON S. Income distribution policy in developing countries:A case study of Korea[M]. Stanford:Stanford University Press, 1978.
[9] LYSY F J, TAYLOR L. The general equilibrium income distribution model. In World Bank, models of growth and distribution for Brazil[M]. London:Oxford University Press, 1980.
[10] VAN TRUONG N, SHIMIZU T. The effect of transportation on tourism promotion:Literature review on application of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model[J]. Transportation Research Procedia, 2017, 25:3096-3115.
[11] ROBSON E N, WIJAYARATNA K P, DIXIT V V. A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice, 2018, 116:31-53.
[12] DIXON P B, PARMENTER B R, SUTTON J M, et al. ORANI:A multisectoral model of the Australian economy[M]. Amsterdam:North-Holland, 1982.
[13] 陈建华,刘学勇,秦芬芬. CGE模型在交通运输行业的引入研究[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 12(3):31-36. CHEN J H, LIU X Y, QIN F F. A study on application of CGE model in transportation industry[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University (Social Sciences Edition), 2013, 12(3):31-36.(in Chinese)
[14] 齐天宇,张希良,何建坤.全球能源经济可计算一般均衡模型研究综述[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(8):42-48. QI T Y, ZHANG X L, HE J K. Review of research on global energy-economic computable general equilibrium models[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(8):42-48.(in Chinese)
[15] 王灿,蔡闻佳.气候变化经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2020. WANG C, CAI W J. Climate change economics[M]. Beijing:Tsinghua University Press, 2020.(in Chinese)
[16] FOURE J, AGUIAR A, BIBAS R, et al. Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models:Review and guidelines proposal[J]. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 2020, 5(1):28-62.
[17] BERG C. Household transport demand in a CGE-framework[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2007, 37(3):573-597.
[18] ABRELL J. Regulating CO₂ emissions of transportation in Europe:A CGE-analysis using market-based instruments[J]. Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment, 2010, 15(4):235-239.
[19] WU R, DAI H C, GENG Y, et al. Achieving China's INDC through carbon cap-and-trade:Insights from Shanghai[J]. Applied Energy, 2016, 184:1114-1122.
[20] CHOI Y, LIU Y, LEE H. The economy impacts of Korean ETS with an emphasis on sectoral coverage based on a CGE approach[J]. Energy Policy, 2017, 109:835-844.
[21] TIAN X, DAI H C, GENG Y, et al. The effects of carbon reduction on sectoral competitiveness in China:A case of Shanghai[J]. Applied Energy, 2017, 197:270-278.
[22] ZHOU Y X, FANG W S, LI M J, et al. Exploring the impacts of a low-carbon policy instrument:A case of carbon tax on transportation in China[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2018, 139:307-314.
[23] 李思寰,唐连生.湖南交通运输业CGE碳税动态仿真模型研究[J].中国集体经济, 2020(10):75-78. LI S H, TANG L S. Research on dynamic simulation model of CGE carbon tax in Hunan transportation industry[J]. China Collective Economy, 2020(10):75-78.(in Chinese)
[24] ZHANG R S, MATSUSHIMA K, KOBAYASHI K. Land use, transport, and carbon emissions:A computable urban economic model for Changzhou, China[J]. Review of Urban&Regional Development Studies, 2016, 28(3):162-181.
[25] ZHANG R S, LONG Y, WU W C, et al. How do transport policies contribute to a low carbon city?An integrated assessment using an urban computable general equilibrium model[J]. Energy Procedia, 2018, 152:606-611.
[26] KARPLUS V J, PALTSEV S, BABIKER M, et al. Should a vehicle fuel economy standard be combined with an economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions constraint?Implications for energy and climate policy in the United States[J]. Energy Economics, 2013, 36:322-333.
[27] BOONPANYA T, MASUI T. Assessing the economic and environmental impact of freight transport sectors in Thailand using computable general equilibrium model[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021, 280:124271.
[28] 饶呈祥.燃油税经济效应的省际差异探析[J].财经科学, 2009(2):73-80. RAO C X. The regional economic effects of fuel taxiation on different provinces[J]. Finance&Economics, 2009(2):73-80.(in Chinese)
[29] 袁长伟,王建伟,焦萍.燃油税对国民经济与运输冲击的CGE模拟[J].交通运输工程学报, 2011, 11(6):100-105. YUAN C W, WANG J W, JIAO P. CGE simulation of fuel oil tax impact on national economy and transportation[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2011, 11(6):100-105.(in Chinese)
[30] KISHIMOTO P N, ZHANG D, ZHANG X L, et al. Modeling regional transportation demand in China and the impacts of a national carbon policy[J]. Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2014, 2454(1):1-11.
[31] KARPLUS V J, KISHIMOTO P N, PALTSEV S. The global energy, CO₂ emissions, and economic impact of vehicle fuel economy standards[J]. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2015, 49(4):517-538.
[32] SOLAYMANI S, KARI F. Impacts of energy subsidy reform on the Malaysian economy and transportation sector[J]. Energy Policy, 2014, 70:115-125.
[33] SOLAYMANI S, KARDOONI R, YUSOFF S B, et al. The impacts of climate change policies on the transportation sector[J]. Energy, 2015, 81:719-728.
[34] CAETANO T, MERVEN B, HARTLEY F, et al. Decarbonisation and the transport sector:A socio-economic analysis of transport sector futures in South Africa[J]. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 2017, 28(4):9-18.
[35] KARKATSOULIS P, SISKOS P, PAROUSSOS L, et al. Simulating deep CO₂ emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework:The GEM-E3T model[J]. Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment, 2017, 55:343-358.
[36] MITTAL S, DAI H C, FUJIMORI S, et al. Key factors influencing the global passenger transport dynamics using the AIM/transport model[J]. Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment, 2017, 55:373-388.
[37] AVETISYAN M. Impacts of global carbon pricing on international trade, modal choice and emissions from international transport[J]. Energy Economics, 2018, 76:532-548.
[38] PALTSEV S, HENRY CHEN Y H, KARPLUS V, et al. Reducing CO₂ from cars in the European Union[J]. Transportation, 2018, 45(2):573-595.
[39] TIAN X, DAI H C, GENG Y, et al. Economic impacts from PM_2.5 pollution-related health effects in China's road transport sector:A provincial-level analysis[J]. Environment International, 2018, 115:220-229.
[40] ZHANG R S, FUJIMORI S, DAI H C, et al. Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation:Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model[J]. Applied Energy, 2018, 211:76-88.
[41] TIAN X, DAI H C, GENG Y, et al. Toward the 2-degree target:Evaluating co-benefits of road transportation in China[J]. Journal of Transport&Health, 2019, 15:100674.
[42] BETARELLI JR A A, DOMINGUES E P, HEWINGS G J D. Transport policy, rail freight sectors, and market structure:The economic effects in Brazil[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice, 2020, 135:1-23.
[43] REN S Y, WANG P, DAI H C, et al. Health and economic impact assessment of transport and industry PM_2.5 control policy in Guangdong Province[J]. Sustainability, 2021, 13(23):13049.
[44] SOLAYMANI S, SHARAFI S. A comparative study between government support and energy efficiency in Malaysian transport[J]. Sustainability, 2021, 13(11):6196.
[45] MUTO S, TOYAMA H, TAKAI A. Evaluation of transport and location policies to realize the carbon-free urban society[J]. Sustainability, 2021, 14(1):1-21.
[46] PROQUE A L, JUNIOR A A B, PEROBELLI F S. Fuel tax, cross subsidy, and transport:Assessing the effects on income and consumption distribution in Brazil[J]. Research in Transportation Economics, 2022, 95:101204.
[47] HORRIDGE M, WITTWER G. SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China[J]. China Economic Review, 2008, 19(4):628-634.
[48] KIM E, HEWINGS G J D. An application of an integrated transport network-multiregional CGE model to the calibration of synergy effects of highway investments[J]. Economic Systems Research, 2009, 21(4):377-397.
[49] BRÖCKER J, KORZHENEVYCH A, SCHVRMANN C. Assessing spatial equity and efficiency impacts of transport infrastructure projects[J]. Transportation Research Part B:Methodological, 2010, 44(7):795-811.
[50] HADDAD E A, PEROBELLI F S, DOMINGUES E P, et al. Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil[J]. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 2011, 3(1):44-61.
[51] 庄序莹,侯敬雯.高速铁路、公路建设的财政投资效益研究:基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的分析[J].财贸经济, 2012(6):43-49. ZHUANG X Y, HOU J W. Comparative study of government investment returns between high-speed railway and highway construction:A CGE analysis[J]. Finance&Trade Economics, 2012(6):43-49.(in Chinese)
[52] BROHI K M, UQAILI M A, MAHAR R B. Environmental policies for new road network of Pakistan to control air emissions[M]//UQAILI M, HARIJAN K. Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development. Vienna:Springer, 2012:307-319.
[53] KIM E, BAE Y. Economic contribution of the private sector on financing and operation of a highway:Financial computable general equilibrium[J]. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2015, 49(3):397-414.
[54] CHEN Z H, XUE J B, ROSE A Z, et al. The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China:A dynamic CGE analysis[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice, 2016, 92:232-245.
[55] ELSHAHAWANY D N, HADDAD E A, LAHR M L. Accessibility, transportation cost, and regional growth:A case study for Egypt[J]. Middle East Development Journal, 2017, 9(2):256-277.
[56] CHEN Z H. Measuring the regional economic impacts of high-speed rail using a dynamic SCGE model:The case of China[J]. European Planning Studies, 2019, 27(3):483-512.
[57] 朱博恩,张伯伟,马骆茹.交通基础设施联通对"丝绸之路经济带"的经济影响研究:基于CGE的模拟分析[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报), 2019(5):41-55. ZHU B E, ZHANG B W, MA L R. Study on economic effects of transportation infrastructure connectivity along the"Silk Road Economic Belt ":Based on CGE model[J]. International Business (Joural of the University of International business and Economics), 2019(5):41-55.(in Chinese)
[58] 李娜,石敏俊,张卓颖,等.基于多区域CGE模型的长江经济带一体化政策效果分析[J].中国管理科学, 2020, 28(12):67-76. LI N, SHI M J, ZHANG Z Y, et al. Analysis on policy effects of integration of Yangtze River Economic Belt based on a multi-regional CGE model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(12):67-76.(in Chinese)
[59] PISKIN M, HEWINGS G J D, HANNUM, C M. Synergy effects of highway investments on the Turkish economy:An application of an integrated transport network with a multiregional CGE model[J]. Transport Policy, 2020, 95:78-92.
[60] CARDENETE M A, LÓPEZ-CABACO R. Economic and environmental impact of the new Mediterranean Rail Corridor in Andalusia:A dynamic CGE approach[J]. Transport Policy, 2021, 102:25-34.
[61] KIM E, MOON S W, YI Y. Analyzing spillover effects of development of Asian highway on regional growth of Northeast Asian countries[J]. Review of Development Economics, 2021, 25(3):1243-1266.
[62] ROKICKI B, HADDAD E A, HORRIDGE J M, et al. Accessibility in the regional CGE framework:The effects of major transport infrastructure investments in Poland[J]. Transportation, 2021, 48(2):747-772.
[63] YANG Q, HU X R, WANG Y Q, et al. Comparison of the impact of China's railway investment and road investment on the economy and air pollution emissions[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021, 293:126100.
[64] ALI T, HUANG J K, XIE W. Bilateral economic impacts of China-Pakistan economic corridor[J]. Agriculture, 2022, 12(2):143.
[65] CETIN V R. When do public transport investments really matter?A CGE analysis for Türkiye[J/OL]. Economic Systems Research.(2022-09-26)[2022-12-10]. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09535314.2022.2122407.
[66] ISHIKURA T, YOKOYAMA F. Regional economic effects of the Ring Road project in the Greater Tokyo Area:A spatial CGE approach[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2022, 101(4):811-837.
[67] NJOYA E T, RAGAB A M. Economic impacts of public air transport investment:A case study of Egypt[J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14(5):2651.
[68] ANSON S, TURNER K. Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector[J]. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(9):3608-3620.
[69] SILVA C M, FERREIRA A F, BENTO J P C. Impact of hydrogen in the road transport sector for Portugal 2010-2050[J]. Energy Procedia, 2014, 58:207-214.
[70] LI W, JIA Z J, ZHANG H Z. The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China:A CGE-based analysis[J]. Energy, 2017, 119:800-816.
[71] DAI H C, XIE X X, XIE Y, et al. Green growth:The economic impacts of large-scale renewable energy development in China[J]. Applied Energy, 2016, 162:435-449.
[72] SIAGIAN U W R, YUWONO B B, FUJIMORI S, et al. Low-carbon energy development in Indonesia in alignment with intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) by 2030[J]. Energies, 2017, 10(1):52.
[73] GUO Z W, LI T, PENG S T, et al. Environmental and economic consequences of the incentive policy on electric vehicle industry:A CGE based study in China[J]. Resources, Conservation, and Recycling, 2021, 169:105542.
[74] LIN B Q, WU W. The impact of electric vehicle penetration:A recursive dynamic CGE analysis of China[J]. Energy Economics, 2021, 94:105086.
[75] GUO Z W, LI T, SHI B W, et al. Economic impacts and carbon emissions of electric vehicles roll-out towards 2025 goal of China:An integrated input-output and computable general equilibrium study[J]. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 2022, 31:165-174.
[76] JIANG H D, XUE M M, LIANG Q M, et al. How do demand-side policies contribute to the electrification and decarburization of private transportation in China?A CGE-based analysis[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2022, 175:121322.
[77] DU H B, CHEN Z N, ZHANG Z K, et al. The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China's transportation sector:A CGE analysis[J]. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 2020, 5(4):249-263.
[78] KHAMPHILAVANH B, MASUI T. Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle penetration in road transportation in Laos[C]//Proceedings of 2020 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (ICUE). Pattaya, Thailand:IEEE, 2020:1-8.
[79] TAMBA M, KRAUSE J, WEITZEL M, et al. Economy-wide impacts of road transport electrification in the EU[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2022, 182:121803.
[80] CUI Q, HE L, LIU Y, et al. The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on China's transport sectors based on the CGE model coupled with a decomposition analysis approach[J]. Transport Policy, 2021, 103:103-115.
[81] ZHANG Q, TONG Q. The economic impacts of traffic consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in China:A CGE analysis[J]. Transport Policy, 2021, 114:330-337.
[82] JUNIOR A A B, FARIA W R, PROQUE A L, et al. COVID-19, public agglomerations, and economic effects:Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil[J]. Transport Policy, 2021, 110:254-272.
[83] TSCHARAKTSCHIEW S, HIRTE G. Should subsidies to urban passenger transport be increased?A spatial CGE analysis for a German metropolitan area[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice, 2012, 46(2):285-309.
[84] LEE T C, LAM J S L, LEE P T W. Asian economic integration and maritime CO₂ emissions[J]. Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment, 2016, 43:226-237.
[85] HADDAD E A, HEWINGS G J D, PEROBELLI F S, et al. Regional effects of port infrastructure:A spatial CGE application to Brazil[J]. International Regional Science Review, 2010, 33(3):239-263.
[86] SOLAYMANI S, KARI F. Environmental and economic effects of high petroleum prices on transport sector[J]. Energy, 2013, 60:435-441.
[87] STEININGER K W, FRIEDL B, GEBETSROITHER B. Sustainability impacts of car road pricing:A computable general equilibrium analysis for Austria[J]. Ecological Economics, 2007, 63(1):59-69.
[88] NJOYA E T, NIKITAS A. The role of air transport in employment creation and inclusive growth in the Global South:The case of South Africa[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2020, 85:102738.
[89] 王碧茹,曾小舟,杨冰慧,等.基于CGE的民用客机产业效应变动分析[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 38(2):243-250. WANG B R, ZENG X Z, YANG B H, et al. Analysis of industrial effects of Chinese civil aircraft based on CGE model[J]. Journal of Harbin University of Commerce (Natural Sciences Edition), 2022, 38(2):243-250.(in Chinese)
[90] 马星,曾小舟,曾修彬.基于CGE模型的我国民用飞机政策影响分析[J].华东交通大学学报, 2015, 32(2):59-66. MA X, ZENG X Z, ZENG X B. Policy analysis of Chinese civil aircraft based on CGE model[J]. Journal of East China Jiaotong University, 2015, 32(2):59-66.(in Chinese)
[91] 胡宗义,韩婉莹,刘亦文.大飞机项目对相关产业影响的CGE研究[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 36(8):88-92. HU Z Y, HAN W Y, LIU Y W. Impact of large aircraft project on Chinese macro-economy and various industries, a CGE approach[J]. Journal of Hunan University (Natural Sciences), 2009, 36(8):88-92.(in Chinese)
[92] 戚铭尧,杨坤河,缪立新.基于可计算一般均衡的货运量预测模型[J].工业技术经济, 2013, 32(3):3-10. QI M Y, YANG K H, MIAO L X. A freight forecasting model based on computable general equilibrium[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2013, 32(3):3-10.(in Chinese)
[93] 饶呈祥,范平.交通非税收入对我国经济影响的CGE分析[J].软科学, 2008, 22(6):32-37, 51. RAO C X, FAN P. The economic effects of traffic revenue from a CGE analysis[J]. Soft Science, 2008, 22(6):32-37, 51.(in Chinese)
[94] HUANG L, KELLY S, Lü K J, et al. A systematic review of empirical methods for modelling sectoral carbon emissions in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 215:1382-1401.
[95] 世界银行《碧水蓝天》编写组.碧水蓝天:展望21世纪的中国环境[M].云萍,祁忠,译.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 1997. Word Bank the Writing Group of" Blue Water and Sky". Clear water, blue skies:China's environment in the new century[M]. YUN P, QI Z, trans. Beijing:China Financial&Economic Publishing House, 1997.(in Chinese)
[96] World Conference on Transport Research Society and Institute for Transport Policy Studies. Urban transport and the environment:An international perspective[M]. Boston:Elsevier, 2004.
[97] EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY. Towards a resource-efficient transport system-TERM 2009:Indicators tracking transport and environment in the European Union[R]. Brussels:European Union, 2010.
[98] NAKAMURA K, HAYASHI Y. Strategies and instruments for low-carbon urban transport:An international review on trends and effects[J]. Transport Policy, 2013, 29:264-274.
[99] 沈体雁,温璐歌.基于SCGE的国土空间规划模拟框架CTSPM及其在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的应用[J].自然资源学报, 2021, 36(9):2320-2334. SHEN T Y, WEN L G. Simulation framework of China's territorial spatial planning model (CTSPM) based on spatial computable general equilibrium model (SCGE) and its application in land and space safety simulation[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2021, 36(9):2320-2334.(in Chinese)
[100] JONES R, WHALLEY J. A Canadian regional general equilibrium model and some applications[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1989, 25(3):368-404.
[101] BUCKLEY P H. A transportation-oriented interregional computable general equilibrium model of the United States[J]. The Annals of Regional Science, 1992, 26(4):331-348.
[102] WIDE R M. Transportation costs in regionai, models of foreign trade:An application to Canada-U.S. trade[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 1992, 32(2):185-207.
[103] ROSON R. Computable spatial economic equilibria and freight network modelling[J]. International Journal of Transport Economics, 1993, 20(1):51-66.
[104] ROSON R. The macroeconomic impact of traffic congestion:A CGE analysis[M]//VAN DEN BERGH J C J M, NIJKAMP P, RIETVELD P. Recent Advances in Spatial Equilibrium Modelling. Berlin, Springer, 1996:261-277.
[105] BRÖCKER J. Operational spatial computable general equilibrium modeling[J]. The Annals of Regional Science, 1998, 32(3):367-387.
[106] FAN W, TREYZ F, TREYZ G. An evolutionary new economic geography model[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 2000, 40(4):671-695.
[107] MIYAGI T. Economic appraisal for multiregional impacts by a large-scale expressway project[R]. Amsterdam:Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, 2001.
[108] HOVI I B, JEAN-HANSEN V. Establishing marginals for Norwegian freight flows in 2003[R]. Oslo:Institute of Transport Economics, 2006.
[109] VOLD A, JEAN-HANSEN V. PINGO:A model for prediction of regional and interregional freight transport in Norway[R]. Oslo:Institute of Transport Economics, 2007.
[110] CASCETTA E, CARTENÌ A, HENKE I, et al. Economic growth, transport accessibility and regional equity impacts of high-speed railways in Italy:Ten years expost evaluation and future perspectives[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice, 2020, 139:412-428.
[111] SCHNELL J L, NAIK V, HOROWITZ L W, et al. Air quality impacts from the electrification of light-duty passenger vehicles in the United States[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2019, 208:95-102.
[112] 陆潘涛,韩亚龙,戴瀚程. 1.5℃和2℃目标下中国交通部门2050年的节能减排协同效益[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 57(3):517-528. LU P T, HAN Y L, DAI H C. Co-benefits of decarbonizing China's transport sector in energy saving and emission reduction under 1.5-and 2-degree targets in 2050[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2021, 57(3):517-528.(in Chinese)
[113] YU F, XIAO D, CHANG M S. The impact of carbon emission trading schemes on urban-rural income inequality in China:A multi-period difference-in-differences method[J]. Energy Policy, 2021, 159:112652.
[114] WANG M, FENG C. Tracking the inequalities of global per capita carbon emissions from perspectives of technological and economic gaps[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2022, 315:115144.
[115] SCHÄFER A, JACOBY H D. Technology detail in a multisector CGE model:Transport under climate policy[J]. Energy Economics, 2005, 27(1):1-24.
[116] WANG H L, OU X M, ZHANG X L. Mode, technology, energy consumption, and resulting CO₂ emissions in China's transport sector up to 2050[J]. Energy Policy, 2017, 109:719-733.
[117] PAN X Z, WANG H L, WANG L N, et al. Decarbonization of China's transportation sector:In light of national mitigation toward the Paris agreement goals[J]. Energy, 2018, 155:853-864.
[118] 牛玉静,陈文颖,吴宗鑫.全球多区域CGE模型的构建及其3E扩展[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 54(8):1073-1079. NIU Y J, CHEN W Y, WU Z X. Global multi-regional CGE model with its 3E extensions[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science&Technology), 2014, 54(8):1073-1079.(in Chinese)
[119] 刘俊伶,孙一赫,王克,等.中国交通部门中长期低碳发展路径研究[J].气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(5):513-521. LIU J L, SUN Y H, WANG K, et al. Study on mid-and long-term low carbon development pathway for China's transport sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(5):513-521.(in Chinese)